Google executives spend millions of dollars a night on inside deals

Author:Kevin Lau

 

“Who will be the number one in Google’s annual search in 2025?” Since the opening, Pope Leo XIV has been at the forefront, with a long-term probability stable at around 50 per cent; and prominent global figures such as Trump, Taylor Swift and Musker also occupy the centre of narratives in the entire market -- This is supposed to be a list of "celebrity" contests。

The vast majority of traders have never looked carefully at the almost zero weight options at the bottom of the entry: Mikey Madison, Andy Byron, d4vd. They appear only to make the scale more rich, and no one really sees them as potential winners。

No one cares about the stupid big house

A week ago, when everyone focused on the rise and fall of these star options, an address (0xafEe) bought "d4vd = yes" at very low prices. In the forecast market, the price is the probability - while the probability of d4vd was not only extremely low but almost negligible。

For others, it's just an insignificant "lottery slot": this long-term probabilities approach zero, and if the probabilities rise to 10 percent, it can yield dozens of times more. The trader could not have spent more than $20,000 on this slot, while his historical trade was close to tens of millions of dollars, making the argument of the lottery slot even more convincing。

A really weird move happens a week later。

The trader suddenly began to build large-scale warehouses the day before yesterday, when Google published the hot list, which was completely unknown. He's not buying "yes" for hot people, but he's driving them crazy。

Pope Leo XIV, Trump, Taylor Swift, the Mayor of New York City, all the options that the market identified as "possibly winning" were rejected with millions of dollars of real money and silver。

This operation, which has no risk-free logic and ignores price shocks, is completely out of step with the trade logic of giant whales or even with the investment behaviour of normal people. Some people in the market are beginning to notice this big opposition, but more people just think of him as a "smugly rich" joke。

♪ The big-eyed market reverses ♪

however, less than a few hours after he had finished cleaning the list, google suddenly issued an annual hot list. as soon as the rankings were published, the entire market was in a state of collective stagnation — not the pope, not the trump, not any hot option, but the name of the long-term probabilities near zero and the traders were not even looking at the data: d4vd。

an instant explosion. in just a few seconds, the probability of d4vd is raised directly vertically from the bottom of the chart to 99.9 per cent, with all other options immediately emptied. while the market is still trying to understand whether or not this is a google bug, one has noticed that the large household that has been operating "discreetly" has earned more than $1 million a day。

he bought "d4vd" = yes, nearly 20 times the profit. all the "hot people" he bought won。

As people continued to move down his hold: he also won in another almost identical entry, "The Top Five of the Google Year" , with ten positions of nearly $500,000, floating at 292,000. He was also involved in seven entries on the timing of the release of Gemini ' s new edition, with an investment of over $1 million, which remained fully profitable。

In other words, as long as it was related to Google, he never seemed to be wrong。

It's more scary than insider trading

When people began to characterize the matter as using bad news from inside Google employees for profit, a deeper chain of follow-up pushed the incident in a more disturbing direction. The analysis showed that the dealer had the address of anchoviousraccoon.eth and that according to the chain, he had pledged over $15 million in ETH on Aave before 4 November。

The chain of assets alone exceeds $15 million, which is clearly not the level of wealth available to ordinary Google employees. There are increasing indications that this person is most likely not an ordinary engineer, but rather a Google senior, deeply embedded in the core system of Google and even in decision-making power。

In this way, the more dangerous question emerges: what if he not only knows the outcome well in advance, but even manages it

Google ' s annual heat search list is not based solely on searching aggregates, but on a set of internal algorithms that are highly sensitive to instant search outbreaks. Theoretically, it is easy to push a name to "jump" on the list, provided that the algorithm parameters, weights and thresholds are available. For a truly competent Google executive, it is not an unattainable task to get a name to the top. Within this framework, the forecast market is not a tool for predicting the future at all, but rather a future arbitrage instrument that some people can use to create directly through a hidden decision-making chain。

If this expensive Google executive really has the ability to regulate algorithms, then all Google-related forecasting markets are not just a channel for him to use poor information to make profit; he can even fine-tune the world line, as he does with fine-tuning, in his best interests。

Concluding remarks

For the first time in an open market, a person with central decision-making power can transform the forecast from a "message platform" to a "tool for changing reality."。

The projection of the market has been seen as a reverse price mechanism driven by collective wisdom in the search for the truth; for the first time in this case, it proved to be capable of being used by certain persons with systemic authority to tamper with the world line。

He bets not only the future, but the future he can create。