IT'S BETTER TO BUY A BTC THAN A FINGER. THERE'S A WARRANTY PERIOD

Original by Curly, Deep tide TechFlow

Distinguished U.S. stock traders have had a good six months。

THE STORY OF AI CAPITAL SPENDING HAS GROWN, AND NET ACCOUNT VALUES HAVE RISEN WITH WATER. IN RETROSPECT OF BITCOIN, FROM $126,000 LAST OCTOBER, IT WENT BACK TO AROUND $80,000, DOWN 37%, AND THE CURRENCY HOLDER'S FEELING WAS ABOUT TWO WORDS:

Bitter。

The mood is getting worse, and social media is becoming a new narrative:Buying American technology is better than buying bitcoin, and mostly。

Reddit, in the encryption plate today, there's a post that even pictifies the mood. A user posted oneComparisonIn the past five years, NASDAQ has increased by 132.8 per cent and bitcoin by 43.8 per cent。

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS FIGURE FOLLOWS THE EUROPEAN DD/MM/YYYY DATE FORMAT AND THAT THE ACTUAL WINDOW IS 12 MAY 2021 TO 12 MAY 2026 AND IS BASED ON THE EURO-DENOMINATED ETF。

The appreciation of the United States dollar against the euro from 2021 to date was about 18 per cent, and the increase in dollar assets from the euro perspective was further amplified by the exchange rate effect. In the United States dollar, the price was naked, with an increase of approximately 121 per cent for NASDAQ and 43 per cent for Bitcoin during the same period, and the gap remains significant。

"WHAT'S GOING ON?" I GUESS THE ANSWER IS AI CHANGED EVERYTHING

Bloomberg did a similar story in February of this year, much less under the heading, "bitcoin five-year paybacks for the bid 500, NASDAQ 100 and Gold."。

There's a shelf life for investments

The five-year window starting in December 2021。

BITCOIN HAS JUST RETURNED FROM THE HIGH OF THE US$ 69,000 CYCLE TO AROUND US$ 48,000, WHILE NASDAQ 100 IS ABOUT 16,300 POINTS AND THE AI NARRATIVE HAS NOT YET STARTED. THIS MEANS THAT BITCOIN'S START-UP LINE IS LOCATED ON A HIGH PLATFORM AT THE END OF BULLSTOWN, WHILE NASDAQ'S START-UP LINE IS LOCATED ON THE NIGHT BEFORE THE AI SUPERLOOSE。

EMOTIONALLY, PROMOTING AMERICA IS BETTER THAN BTC; BUT IS IT TRUE THAT THE DATA IS A LITTLE LONGER? IF THE STARTING POINT IS MOVED FROM A FEW MONTHS TO A FEW YEARS, THERE WILL BE A SHARP REVERSAL OF THE WINNING RELATIONSHIP。

WE HAVE MADE A SIMPLE SMALL STATISTIC, WITH THE FOLLOWING FIVE TIME WINDOWS, WITH A UNIFIED END POINT OF MAY 2026 (BTC APPROXIMATELY $80,000, NASDAQ 100 ABOUT 29,000 POINTS), STARTING WITH FIVE KEY POINTS OF ENCRYPTION AND MACROMARKET RESPECTIVELY:

And now:

Bitcoin rose from about $5,800 to $80,000, an increase of about 1,279 per cent. NASDAQ rose from about 7,000 points to 29,000 points, an increase of about 314 per cent. Bitcoin's return is more than four times that of NASDAQ。

THE BOTTOM OF THE FTX CRASH IS NOW:

Bitcoin rose from about $16,000 to $80,000, an increase of about 400 per cent. NASDAQ rose from about 11,500 points to 29,000 points, an increase of about 152 per cent. Bitcoin's return is still 2.6 times that of NASDAQ。

NOW:

Bitcoin rose from about $44,000 to $80,000, an increase of about 82 per cent. NASDAQ rose from about 16,800 points to 29,000 points, an increase of about 73 per cent. The two are almost even, with bitcoin slightly ahead。

The technology unit cycle (May 2021) now:

Bitcoin rose from about $48,000 to $80,000, an increase of about 67 per cent. NASDAQ rose from about 16,300 points to 29,000 points, an increase of about 78 per cent. Nazdak leads。

Now:

Bitcoin went down from about $126,000 to $80,000, down by about 37 per cent. NASDAQ rose from about 22,000 points to 29,000 points, an increase of about 32 per cent. NASDAQ is a big lead and in the opposite direction。

So the conclusion is: five windows, three bitcoins, two NASDAQs. Reddit posts are selected as one of the largest winning windows in NASDAQ。

PERIODIC VS TREND ASSETS

The difference in the threshold sensitivity between Bitcoin and NASDAQ 100 is rooted in the very different volatile structure of the two assets。

NASDAQ is made up of 500 large non-financial enterprises supported by cash flows and profits, with a long-term upward trend. Even after the 33% retreat in 2022, recovery has been relatively steady。

SelectionAny non-extreme starting point, long-term returns fall into a relatively stable zone。

Bitcoin is a typical periodic asset. Historically, every round of cattle and bear cycle has a range of between 75 and 85 per cent (in 2014, 2018 and 2022), from peak to bottom, and about 50 per cent between October 2025 and early 2026。

Such sharp fluctuations mean that the starting point is where the cycle falls, and the final returns are almost determined。

Nasdaq.com draws a more straightforward conclusion: Bitcoin is essentially a utility version of 500。

The year 2024 saw an increase of 24 per cent, and the year 2024 saw an increase of 135 per cent, the year 2023 saw an increase of 26 per cent, and the year 2022 saw an increase of 147 per cent, while the year 2022 saw a drop of 19 per cent and the year 2022 saw a decline of 65 per cent. Same direction, three to five times larger。

This means that the choice of a starting point that happens to be at the top of the bitcoin cycle to draw the conclusion that "stocks win bitcoin" is almost statistically necessary. And vice versa。

NOW, THE BTC, OR THE CYCLICAL UNDERESTIMATION

Leaving the start game aside, the current market structure itself deserves attention。

BITCOIN WENT THROUGH A TYPICAL CYCLICAL ROUND AFTER IT PEAKED IN OCTOBER 2025. IT FELL TO ABOUT US$ 65,000 IN FEBRUARY 2026, THEN REBOUNDED TO AROUND US$ 80,000, WITH THE HIGHER POINT REMAINING AROUND 37 PER CENT. IN THE SAME PERIOD, NASDAQ 100 HAS BEEN INNOVATIVELY DRIVEN BY THE CONTINUED EXPANSION OF AI CAPITAL SPENDING。

This division has not been rare in history. In 2019, bitcoin rose from $3,000 to $12,000, almost decoupling from the standard 500. In 2022, the two fell sharply, and the correlation soared to 0.92. The relevance of the encrypted market to the US stock is dynamic, cyclical and not fixed。

Alex Thorn, research director of Galaxy Digital, presented an interesting perspective in December 2025:

When measured by the purchasing power of the dollar in 2020, the nominal height of $126,000 in bitcoin has never actually exceeded $100,000. Inflation accumulated around 24 per cent between 2020 and 2025, leading to systemic deviations in nominal price comparisons across the years。

At a time when bitcoin is 37% higher than in history, and the United States stock index is at the same time at the highest level in history, it is natural that stock runs and wins bitcoins in social media。

BUT IN THE PAST, WHEN EACH OF THESE NARRATIVES WAS LOUDEST, IT WAS USUALLY CLOSE TO THE BOTTOM OF THE BITCOIN CYCLE. AFTER THE FALL OF THE FTX AT THE END OF 2022, SIMILAR "BITCOIN IS DEAD" ARGUMENTS WERE EQUALLY HIGH, AND AFTER 18 MONTHS, BITCOIN ROSE FROM $16,000 TO $126,000。

IT'S EASY, IT'S HARD TO BET IN ADVANCE, TO ARGUE WHICH ASSET INCREASES ARE LARGER THAN MICRO-LEVEL, AND ANY CONCLUSION THAT "A IS ALWAYS BETTER THAN B" IN A SINGLE-TIME WINDOW WILL NOT STAND THE TEST OF A SMOOTH STARTING POINT。

A generation-to-generation version of God, and a generation-to-generation version is difficult to find。