Trump talks to blow up the market: the next two or three weeks will be a hit on Iran
Trump did not mention the ceasefire, and the market reacted violently。
Original title: "Trump Speech Blows the Market": "Strike Iran" for the next two to three weeks, oil price boom, gold drop
Source: Kim Xa data
On Thursday morning, 9 a.m. Beijing time, the President of the United States, Trump, delivered a national speech and issued a “important update” on Iran。
In his speech, Trump stated that the United States forces had won a quick and decisive victory. Trump stressed that the core strategic objectives were close to being achieved, " We have to do our job and do it soon. We are very close
He mentioned that most Iranian leaders were dead. The Iranian navy had ceased to exist, the air force had been destroyed and the command and control capabilities of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps were being destroyed。
He stated that Iran had hoped to produce as many missiles as possible and that military operations had greatly impeded Iran ' s ability to acquire nuclear weapons. The Iranian nuclear agreement is a flawed one that should never have been reached. “Iran's possession of nuclear weapons is an intolerable threat.”
He said that Israel would not exist without withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear agreement。Moreover, Iran was in the process of stockpiling conventional ballistic missiles, which could soon have arrived “on American soil, in Europe, and almost anywhere else on Earth.” “We will never allow Iran to possess nuclear weapons.” As long as Iran remains a sponsor of terrorism, it will never do so. Iran has weapons no one believes in, and we destroyed them."。
Trump revised the Iranian protest to 45,000 deaths, after publishing 32,000。
Trump saidPartly thanks to Venezuelan oil and gas, the United States is no longer dependent on the Middle East。"We don't need oil from the Middle East. We're helping them
With regard to oil prices, Trump saidThe recent increase in the price of gasoline is a "short-term" phenomenon due to Iran's attack on tankersI don't know. Oil production will soon increase significantly. The United States has never been so well prepared economically. “We did not need the Strait of Hormuz, nor do we need it now. Once the conflict has ended, the strait will naturally open”
Turning again to the time frame, Trump said, "We will hit them hard in the next two to three weeks. We are on schedule to resolve all United States military concerns as soon as possible and very quickly as possible. The regime change was not our plan, but it happened.” He threatened to return Iran to the stone age to which it belongs. “If no agreement is reached, the Iranian power plant will be hit.”
Trump finally stressed thatTargeted, destroying Iran's ability to threaten the United States and destroying its defense industry baseI don't know. The United States has many options to hit Iranian oil, including seizing critical energy facilities. Trump thanked his Middle East allies for saying that the United States would not harm them。
It's worth notingTrump did not announce his withdrawal from NATO。Trump was previously expected to use this opportunity to criticize NATO allies for not participating in the war against Iran。
DURING TRUMP'S SPEECH ON THE IRANIAN WAR, THE US STOCK INDEX FUTURES FELL. THE 500 INDEX FUTURES FELL BY 0.5 PER CENT. THE ASIA-PACIFIC STOCK MARKET FELL AND THE MSI ASIA-PACIFIC INDEX DROPPED BY 0.5 PER CENT. THE NUMBER OF DAYS OFF WAS 225 AND THE NUMBER OF DAYS OFF HAS INCREASED BY 0.4 PER CENT。
U.S. national and Japanese debt fell. In the United States, the annual rate of return on sovereign debt rose by 3 basis points to 4.35 per cent. The annual rate of return on domestic debt rose by 2.5 basis points to 3.640 per cent。
INTRALAP THREATENED TO HIT IRAN ' S ENERGY FACILITIES IF NO AGREEMENT WAS REACHED, OIL PRICES CONTINUED TO RISE, WTI CRUDE OIL EXCEEDED US$ 103 PER BARREL AND INCREASED BY 4 PER CENT IN THE DAY. BRENT CRUDE OIL INCREASED BY $4 PER DAY, REPORTING AN INCREASE OF $1.086 PER BARREL, OR 4.06 PER CENT。
With Trump suggesting that military action could escalate in the short term, international cash and silver prices went down, and cash and gold were lost at $4,700/ounces, falling by over 2 per cent in the day. Cash and silver dropped by over 3 per cent in the day, currently reported at US$ 72.54/ounce. New York City silver fell $73/ounce, 4.13% within day。
The presentation highlighted the enormous pressure on Trump to clarify the war objectives to the public and to find a way out of this conflict, which has entered its fifth week and is becoming increasingly difficult to control. It's worth notingIn some ways, the speech was more like an initial mobilization than a summary after JanuaryI don't know. At present, the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for one fifth of global seaborne oil, has been largely closed since the outbreak of the war and has become the main source of economic distress. Although Trump continues to insist that the energy shock will be mitigated after the war, the Government has yet to clarify how to persuade Iran to resume navigation in the Strait。
Derek Wallbank, a senior editor of the United States Economics and Government, said, "If you've been listening to the President's speech for the past week or so, you haven't heard much more tonight."
He explains the reasons for the United States military action against Iran, and he says that the US military action against Iran is not an optionPromised that the war would soon end, the United States would continue to attack Iran。The timetable has not changed:Two to three weeks. He once again urged those States that relied on the Strait of Hormuz to take action to reopen the Strait。
According to journalist Abhishek Vishnoi, Trump stated that countries relying on the Strait of Hormuz had to deal with this problem, which increases the likelihood that oil risk premiums will persist, even with a ceasefire, a long-term rise in global inflation and cautious prospects for non-United States assets, particularly in emerging markets and oil-importing countries。
Trump did not provide new details about the Strait of Hormuz or signs of a durable solution, which would disrupt the oil market. Instead, he reiterated past statements urging States that relied on the flow of oil from the waterway to show "temporal courage" to address the problem。
According to Clara Ferreira Marques of Bloomberg, "In the course of hoping to win over, oil traders have been looking for clarity from Trump's speech. He did not provide any direction, repeat past statements and confuse bluffs and threats with the prospect of an end. This pushed up Brent and WTI crude oil prices. Despite the President's comments today, there is little evidence of the natural opening of the Strait of Hormuz. In fact, Iran is moving ahead with plans to establish a fee system — a formal structure that would strengthen its control over narrow waterways
For crude oil traders, producers and users, the main gains from the Tramp rhetoric areThe global oil supply contraction caused by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz is likely to continue until AprilI don't know. According to earlier statistics by Bloomberg, every day that the waterway is closed, approximately 11 million barrels are lost。
The main market analyst at AT Global Markets, Nick Twidale, states that "it is clear that investors are not convinced of this, and that there may be more downside space in the global market today. On the whole, I think that, while he said that the war would soon be over, he would be hitting Iran in the coming weeks, this crucial update would have a significant negative impact on the market.”
