ORIGINAL TITLE: "BITCOIN IS DOWN 15% AND THE MINERS ARE DUG UP BY AI?"

Original by ChandlerZ, Foresight News

Bitcoin has grown about 10 times since 2020, but in recent months there has been a marked decline。

The data show that bitcoin network power has dropped from a high point of October by about 15 per cent, and miners have surrendered for nearly 60 days. The average calculation of the network dropped from about 1.1 ZH/s in October to about 977 ETH/s, indicating that miners were shutting down machines or surrendering as profitability declined。

Moreover, the Hash Ribbon indicator of Glassnode, which had been reversed on 29 November, reflected the surrender of miners by tracking short- and long-term calculation trends, and the current short-term supply pressure on the Bitcoin market was likely to increase further, with the difficulty of mining Bitcoin expected to fall to around 139 T on 22 January, the seventh downfall of the past eight adjustments。

The profitability of mining continued to decline for five months

According to Chase Morgan, the Bitcoin network calculus decreased by about 3 per cent to 1045 ETH/s in December 2025, and miners' competition eased, but mining profitability continued to decline。

However, the data show that in December 2025, the average daily block incentive income per miner was $38,700, down 7 per cent from November, down 32 per cent from the previous year, the lowest ever。

The VanEck report analyses that the Bitcoin mining industry is experiencing significant pressure. On the one hand, halving the cyclicality of block subsidies has led to a decline in the miners’ income “steps”; on the other hand, since 2020, full-network computing has expanded at a compound rate of about 62 per cent, and miners have had to invest continuously in CAPEX to increase their calculus in order not to be phased out. In the event that the price of the hedge subsidy falls and the unit cost of growth increases, the profits of the miners will be systematically reduced。

THE DETERIORATION IN THE PROFITABILITY OF MINERS CAN BE SEEN DIRECTLY FROM THE BALANCE POINT OF THE PRICE OF ELECTRICITY. IN THE CASE OF THE S19 XP, THE SUSTAINABLE BALANCE PRICE OF POWER FROM THE 2022 SUBMERGES FELL FROM ABOUT 0.12 IN DECEMBER 2024 TO ABOUT 0.077 IN DECEMBER 2025, MEANING THAT, AGAINST THE BACKDROP OF THE RECENT WEAKENING OF THE BTC PRICES, THE MARGINALITY OF THE MINING ECONOMY HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY, AND THE INDUSTRY ' S DEPENDENCE ON LOW-PRICE RESOURCES, SCALE EFFECTS AND OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY HAS INCREASED FURTHER。

DESPITE A CUMULATIVE INCREASE OF ABOUT 10 TIMES IN TOTAL NETWORK CAPACITY SINCE 2020, THE 30-DAY MOBILE AVERAGE OF NETWORK CAPACITY HAS DECLINED BY ABOUT 4 PER CENT OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS, THE LARGEST DECLINE SINCE APRIL 2024. AT THE SAME TIME, SUPPLY SIDE DISTURBANCES ALSO AFFECT THE CALCULUS, SUCH AS THE CLOSURE OF MINES IN THE XINJIANG REGION UNDER REGULATORY REVIEW OF ABOUT 1.3 GW PRODUCTION CAPACITY, AND AN ESTIMATED 400,000 MINES。

ACTIVE CONVERSION OF MINES

ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL GOLD SECURITIES REPORT, IN THE THIRD QUARTER OF 2025, THE COST OF DEPRECIATING MINING BY UNITED STATES SHARE LISTED COMPANIES HAD RISEN TO $1.12 MILLION, HIGHER THAN THE CURRENT BITCOIN PRICE. ENCRYPTED MINE COMPANIES HAVE A HIGH-WIELDING COMPUTING INFRASTRUCTURE IN THE VICINITY OF MAJOR CITIES AND CITIES, AND ELECTRICITY COSTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 CENTS AND ARE NATURALLY SUITABLE FOR AI CLOUD SERVICE. WITH THE GROWTH OF AI COMPUTING NEEDS, THE TRANSITION OF ENCRYPTED MINES TO AI DATA CENTRES IS AN INEVITABLE CHOICE。

14 THE MAJOR AMERICAN SHARE-LISTED MINING COMPANIES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A POWER CAPACITY OF 15.6 GW BY 2027, WITH THE TRANSFORMATION OF BUSINESS MODELS MAINLY CLOUD COMPUTING AND IDC ELECTRICITY LEASING。

THERE ARE TWO MAIN COMMERCIAL MODELS FOR THE ENCRYPTION OF AI DATA CENTRES。

The first is similar to CoreWeave and Nebius, which purchases chips for cloud computing leases, which IREN currently uses. IREN has a gross electricity capacity of 2.91 GW, corresponding to approximately 1.9 GW core capacity, with a single-watt market value of less than CoreWeave and Nebius, and is currently working with Microsoft on 200 MW core capacity。

The second is an IDC-like power lease model, which only rents the right to use the data centre building and the right to use the power capacity, with servers and electricity paid by the tenant. This is currently the mode of hosting most encrypted mines. Some companies have entered into lease contracts with Google, Amazon, CoreWeave and others are still looking for partners because of their late transition。

VanEck: The drop in Hashi rate may be a good factor

The VanEck report, however, also argues that a decline in the Hashi rate may be a good factor. By comparing the expected rate of return for 30 days and 90 days in the future since 2014, the expected rate of return is higher when the expected rate of return is lower. And when bitcoin calculates down, the average expected return of 180 days is about 30 basis points higher than when the calculation increases。

When the compression lasts for a longer period of time, forwarding gains tend to be more frequent and larger. Since 2014, of the 346 days of negative growth of 90 days, the probability of a positive forward gain of 180 days of bitcoin is 77 per cent, with an average gain of +72 per cent. In addition to this, the probability that 180 days of bitcoin forward returns are positive is about 61 per cent, with an average gain of +48 per cent。

THUS, THE PURCHASE OF BTCS AT 90 DAYS OF GROWTH AT NEGATIVE RATES HAS HISTORICALLY RAISED THE EXPECTED GAIN OF 180 DAYS BY 2400 BASIS POINTS。

Even in a period of economic weakness, many subjects have chosen to continue mining, and short-term revenue pressures and fluctuations are more likely to lead to accelerated clearing and concentration of industries and do not necessarily mean a long-term decline in mining。

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