BIT RESEARCH: WILL IT HAPPEN AGAIN IN 2022? WORLD CUP OR THE END OF BITCOIN BEAR
THE MARKET IS IN THE FINAL STAGES OF THE CURRENT ROUND OF BITCOIN BEAR. THE A-B-C RESTRUCTURING THAT WAS INTRODUCED EARLIER IN EARLY 2026 IS MOVING FORWARD AS EXPECTED: WAVE A HAS FALLEN TO THE $60,000-$69,000 RANGE, WAVE B HAS REBOUNDED TO THE $80,000-$90,000 RANGE, AND HAS PEAKED IN THE VICINITY OF APPROXIMATELY $83,000, WITH THE MARKET NOW ENTERING THE C-WAVE ADJUSTMENT PHASE。
In terms of emotional indicators, the Fear and Greed Index has returned to historical lows and remains relatively similar to the bottom structure of the bear market in 2022. Although it is now closer to the “tradable bottom”, the periodic indicators have not yet sent the final reverse signal. In this process, the focus of market attention is shifting from short-term fluctuations to low-point conditionality, as well as macro-catalysts that may emerge in the next round of cattle markets。
Bear City enters its final phase: $50,000-55,000 or becomes a key area
In terms of technical structure, the top pattern in 2025 is similar to that of 2021. Both cycles experienced rapid upswings, a 21-week moving average line and a gradual rebound, which again weakened. Historical experience shows that the real bottom is often accompanied by a decline in turnover and a narrowing of the concussion zone rather than a rapid reversal。
The Fear and Greed Index is now at an all-time low, with random indicators entering deep overselling, bitcoin prices approaching two standard differential areas below the weekly moving average, and possibly providing phased support near $61,576. According to the cyclical analytical framework, the final lows in the market have not yet emerged。
IN CONJUNCTION WITH ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY, BITCOIN HAS ENTERED THE TYPICAL A-B-C RESTRUCTURING SINCE THE OPENING OF BEAR CITY IN OCTOBER 2025. WITH WAVE B COMING TO AN END IN MID-MAY TO $83,000, THE CURRENT DECLINE IN WAVE C IS UNFOLDING, WITH THE TARGET AREA LIKELY TO BE AROUND $50,000, WITH THE LOW POINT EXPECTED AROUND THE TIME OF THE FIFA WORLD CUP (11 JUNE-19 JULY 2026). OVERALL, $50,000 TO $55,000 WILL BE AT THE CORE OF THE BEAR CITY。
Inflation rises or becomes an important catalyst for the next round of cattle
At the macro level, the current market environment is somewhat similar to that of 2022, and inflation remains a major factor in suppressing the performance of risky assets. Inflation peaked in the previous cycle as an important node driving the market shift, while similar macropaths may re-emerge in the current cycle。
At present, Bitcoin has achieved a price of approximately US$ 54,591, which is considered an important reference for judging market entry into undervalued areas. Historical experience shows that while prices may have fallen at this level for a short time, they usually do not stay below them for too long. At the same time, the cyclical indicators have yet to release the bottom confirmation signal and the actual low point may still have to wait for confirmation to be completed in the next one to three months。
It is hoped that the opening of a new cycle of increase will be confirmed if prices are completed and the average line is re-established for 21 weeks, while the monthly cycle indicator is in reverse. Until then, the market would remain at the bottom stage of construction。
OVERALL, THIS BEAR TOWN IS AT THE END. THE A-B-C RESTRUCTURING, THE PERIODIC INDICATORS AND THE MACRO BACKGROUND POINT IN THE SAME DIRECTION: THE US$ 50,000-US$ 55,000 RANGE APPROXIMATES THE VALUE AREA OF THE BEAR MARKET, WHILE THE US$ 54,591 REALIZED PRICE REPRESENTS AN IMPORTANT LONG-TERM REFERENCE LEVEL. WHILE THE SPECIFIC LOW-POINT TIME STILL DEPENDS ON INFLATION TRENDS AND THE CONFIRMATION OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS, HISTORICAL EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT THE REAL BOTTOM IS OFTEN NOT SEEN AS AN OBVIOUS BUY-IN OPPORTUNITY. AS INFLATIONARY PRESSURES GRADUALLY EASED AND CYCLICAL SIGNALS IMPROVED, IT WAS LIKELY THAT THE NEXT ROUND OF CATTLE MARKETS WOULD START NEAR THE $50,000-55,000 ZONE。
Part of the above is from BIT on Target,Contact usGet the full BIT on Target report。
