PERSPECTIVE: IS MTR A PREMIUM OR A DISCOUNT
@blockTVBee
Original link: https://x.com/blockTVBee/status/206428172332240218
Statement: For the purpose of reproduction, readers can obtain more information by linking to the original language. If the author has any objection to the reproduction, please contact us and we will proceed with the modifications requested by the author. Reproduction for information-sharing purposes only does not constitute any investment proposal and does not represent the views and positions of Wu。
MSTR, IS IT A PREMIUM OR A DISCOUNT
This should be a more scientific method of calculating mNAV
The articles are longer and do not like to see the final conclusions directly in mathematics。
If you like math, you can look at the form, you can read it in the article, and if you have to leave a message, you can learn。
MTR MARKET VALUE/BTC RESERVE, PROBABLY NOT RIGHT
first, with
$MSTR
market value divided by total BTC reserves with micro-strategy。
This may not be the right way。
AS MICRO-STRATEGY PURCHASES OF BTC ARE FINANCED BY ORDINARY SHARES, PRIORITY SHARES AND REVERSIBLE DEBT。
You can't say that the BTCs bought by the three groups count them as MSTRs alone... This method completely ignores the transferable and priority shares, and thus clearly underestimates the value of mNAV。
M2: Micro-strategy calculations are non-market perspectives
Micro-strategy, which divides business value by BTC, is scientific, but micro-strategy itself also has software operations, which may slightly overestimate the value of mNAV if measured by the market value of the enterprise。
MNAV value only for BTC Treasury
BEE MADE AN ADJUSTMENT TO THE MICRO-TACTIC BTC AS AN INDEPENDENT COMPANY, WHICH WAS DIRECTLY FOLLOWING THE FORMULA OF THE ARTICLE:
mNAV = (transferable + priority share + MSTR-US dollar reserve)/BTC reserve
HERE ARE ALL BTC-RELATED LIABILITIES, PRIORITY SHARES, GENERAL, CASH。
PRIORITY SHARES AND REVERSIBLE DEBT FACE VALUE, MSTR MARKET VALUE。
AND DON'T FORGET ABOUT STRE, WHICH IS THE PREFERRED SHARE OF MICRO-STRATEGY FOR EUROPEAN MARKETS。
mNAV
= [6,714+ (1284+713+10489.5+1402.1+1402.4) +45,066-1000]/53,500
= 1.235
This is a mNAV that does not consider micro-strategy software。
BUT IT'S A WAY OF PUTTING THE BTC PREMIUM ON PRIORITY SHARES, DEBT SWAPS AND ORDINARY SHARES。
@Jiangzhuoer2
In-depth discussions, Bee became suddenly aware that he was right that priority shares should not be involved in allocating premiums or discounts。
These are micro-strategy financing instruments, fixed or floating gains, little gains from premiums and little gains from discounts。
So, Bee, then, came up with a more scientific calculation。
Method IV: Portable debt and priority shares are not subject to overhang Price
First of all, the reversible debt can be in currency, but it's estimated that there will be no revolving debt until March 2027. Therefore, debt may be transferred at this time on a non-equity, non-monetary basis, i.e. not to participate in the distribution of the premium。
Long-term/static perspective (10 years)
The long-term perspective is based on the static logic of the asset liability。
Assets = liabilities + owner equity
BTC RESERVE + US$ RESERVE = PORTABLE + PRIORITY SHARE + MSTR ALIGNMENT VALUE
MSTR ALIGNMENT VALUE
=53,500+10000-6, 714-15,291
=32,495
IT IS EXPLAINED HERE THAT THIS METHOD AMOUNTS TO THE DIVISION OF BTC VALUES INTO THREE PARTS, THE FIRST TWO PARTS BEING ALLOCATED TO REVERSIBLE AND PRIORITY SHARES IN NOMINAL TERMS, AND THE THIRD PART TO MSTR。
SO-CALLED ALIGNMENT VALUE, THE BTC ALLOCATES THE MSTR PART. THE MARKET VALUE OF MSTR ONLY REQUIRES 32,495 TO MATCH THE VALUE OF THIS PART OF THE BTC。
CLEARLY, THE CURRENT MARKET VALUE OF MSTR IS 45,066, WHICH EXCEEDS THIS ALIGNMENT VALUE。
mNAV
= MSTR REAL VALUE/MSTR ALIGNMENT VALUE
=45,066/32,495
= 1.39
Medium-term/ Dynamic Perspectives (4 years)
IN THE MEDIUM-TERM DYNAMIC PERSPECTIVE, PRIORITY SHARES DO NOT NEED TO BE REFUNDED, SO THEY ARE CALCULATED ON THE BASIS OF TOTAL DIVIDENDS FOR FUTURE YEARS N, WHICH IS EQUIVALENT TO LIABILITIES。
Select the dividends of the next four years because of a four-year cycle。
Note here that the longer this cycle of future N-year dividends, the higher the mNAV. So four years, not longer。
BTC RESERVE + US DOLLAR RESERVE = REVERSIBLE DEBT + FUTURE 4-YEAR PREFERENTIAL DIVIDENDS + MSTR ALIGNMENT VALUE
MATCH VALUE FOR MSTR
=53,500 + 1000-6, 714-6633.6
=41,152.4
mNAV
= MSTR REAL VALUE/MSTR ALIGNMENT VALUE
= 1.095
Short term (1 year)
Priority dividends are calculated over the next 1 year。
BTC RESERVE + US DOLLAR RESERVE = REVERSIBLE DEBT + FUTURE 1 YEAR PRIORITY DIVIDENDS + MSTR ALIGNMENT VALUE
MATCH VALUE FOR MSTR
=53,500 + 1000-6, 714-1658.4
= 46127.6
mNAV
= MSTR REAL VALUE/MSTR ALIGNMENT VALUE
= 0.977
It's written at the end
The MNAV method studied by Bee Brother has three advantages:
FIRST, ONLY ASSETS, LIABILITIES AND EQUITY RELATED TO THE BTC TREASURY ARE CONSIDERED, AND MICRO-STRATEGY SOFTWARE OPERATIONS ARE NOT CONSIDERED。
SECOND, THIS APPROACH, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT REVERSIBILITY AND PRIORITY SHARES, DIVIDES THE BTC ASSETS INTO THREE PARTS, ALLOCATED TO REVERSIBLE, PRIORITY AND MSTR。
HOWEVER, REVERSIBILITY AND PRIORITY SHARES ARE EXPRESSED IN NOMINAL TERMS, AS THE PRE-DIVERSION AND PRIORITY SHARES WILL HARDLY REDUCE GAINS AS A RESULT OF BTC INCREASES OR FALLS。
The remaining volatile BTC value is assigned to MSTR, divided by the market value of MSTR and obtained mNAV。
Thirdly, the priority shares are permanent and are measured separately in the long or short term, and different conclusions can be drawn。
MSTR IS EITHER A PREMIUM OR A DISCOUNT
In the short term, if micro-strategy can only operate smoothly for a year, then MSTR has a little discount. mNAV = 0.977
In the medium term, MSTR is a premium if micro-strategies can operate smoothly for four years. mNAV = 1.095
Long-term scale, MSTR premiums are higher if micro-strategy can operate smoothly for 10 years. mNAV=1.39
