"If you don't invest in Crypto, you can make the rest. I don't know

More recently, currency circles and other global markets appear to be on ice。

Throughout 2025, gold rose by over 60 per cent, silver and silver by 210.9 per cent, and the United States share Russell 2000 index rose by 12.8 per cent. And bitcoin, after a short period of new heights, the yearning obscenity。

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR 2026, THE POLARIZATION WAS GROWING. ON JANUARY 20TH, THE GOLD AND SILVER RACES WERE RENEWED, WITH THE US-ROSE 2000 INDEX RUNNING FOR 500 DAYS IN A ROW, AND THE A-SHARE-50 INDEX INCREASING BY MORE THAN 15 PER CENT A MONTH。

On January 21st, bitcoin fell down six times, from $98,000 to less than 9000。

The movement of silver in the past year

AFTER 1011, THE MONEY SEEMED TO HAVE LEFT THE CURRENCY RING, AND THE BTC HAD BEEN SHAKING FOR MORE THAN THREE MONTHS BELOW $100,000, AND THE MARKET WAS IN A PERIOD OF “THE LOWEST VOLATILITY EVER”。

Disappointment spread among money-ring investors, asking investors who left Crypto to make money in other markets, they even shared the "ABC" secret -- "Anything But Crypto" -- and the rest could be earned if they did not invest in Crypto。

The last round of "Mass Action" seems to be coming. It's not just the centralization that everyone wants, but the complete "assetization" that Wall Street is leading。

This round of American formations and Wall Street hugged Cripto in unprecedented gestures. SEC has approved spot ETF; Beled, Morgan Chase, has deployed assets to the Ether Fong; the United States has incorporated bitcoin into its strategic reserves; several states have invested bitcoin in pensions; and even NYSE has announced plans to launch an encrypted currency trading platform。

The question then arises: Why is the price so disappointing when Bitcoin is given so much endorsement of politics and capital, and when precious metals and stock markets compete for so much innovation

Why didn't Bitcoin go up and down when money-ring investors were used to learning how to watch the price of American stock in front of the plate

Why is Bitcoin so weak

First-line indicators

Bitcoin is a global risk asset's “pre-indicator”, Raoul Pal, founder of RealVision, has repeatedly mentioned it in many of his articles, because it tends to fluctuate ahead of mainstream risk assets such as the NASDAQ index, because its prices are driven purely by global liquidity and are not directly affected by national financial and interest rates。

According to MacroMicro, the price of bitcoin has turned at a turning point that has been ahead of the Standard 500 index many times in the past few years. Thus, once the rise in bitcoin, which is the leading indicator, has stalled and is no longer able to innovate, this constitutes a strong warning signal that the rise in energy of other assets may be approaching depletion。

Liquidity contraction

SECONDLY, THE PRICE OF BITCOIN, TO DATE, IS HIGHLY CORRELATED WITH THE NET LIQUIDITY OF THE GLOBAL DOLLAR. ALTHOUGH THE FED FELL INTEREST RATES IN 2024 AND 2025, QUANTITATIVE AUSTERITY (QT), WHICH BEGAN IN 2022, CONTINUED TO DRAW LIQUIDITY FROM MARKETS。

BITCOIN WAS HIGH IN 2025, MORE SO BECAUSE ETF, BY BRINGING IN NEW MONEY, DID NOT CHANGE THE FUNDAMENTAL PATTERN OF GLOBAL MACRO-LIQUIDITY. BITCOIN'S CROSSBOARD IS A DIRECT RESPONSE TO THIS MACROREALISM. IT'S HARD TO OPEN A SUPER BULL IN A CASH-DEFICIT ENVIRONMENT。

And the second largest source of liquidity in the world — the yen — is starting to tighten. The Bank of Japan raised the short-term policy rate to 0.75 per cent in December 2025, the highest rate in nearly 30 years. This has directly impacted on the important source of funding for global venture assets over the past decades: the yen hedging。

Historical data show that since 2024, the three interest rate hikes of the Central Bank of Japan have been accompanied by a drop in the price of bitcoin over 20 per cent. The simultaneous tightening of the Fed and the Bank of Japan has exacerbated the global liquidity environment。

Every drop in Japan's interest-rate ring

Geographic conflicts

Finally, geopolitics' potential "black swans" is keeping the market nervous, and Trump's series of internal and external moves at the beginning of 2026 has pushed this uncertainty to new heights。

At the international level, the actions of the Trump Government are fraught with unpredictability. From military intervention in Venezuela to the capture of its President (unprecedented in modern history of international relations), to war with Iran, to attempts to forcibly purchase Greenland, to the imposition of new customs threats against the European Union. This series of radical unilateralism is contributing to overall tension among the major Powers。

Within the United States, his initiative has raised deep concerns about the constitutional crisis. Not only did he propose to change the name of the Ministry of Defence to the Ministry of War, but he had also ordered active troops to prepare for potential deployment in the country。

These actions, combined with statements that he had implied regret that he had failed to intervene with the military and that he did not wish to fail in the mid-term elections, made the concerns of the population increasingly clear: Would he refuse to accept the mid-term election and use force for a second term? This speculation and high pressure have already fueled tensions within the United States, and there are now signs of an expansion of the march。

Trump invoked the Insurgency Act last week and deployed troops to Minnesota to quell the protests, after which the Pentagon ordered some 1,500 active soldiers in Alaska to stand by

The normalization of this conflict is dragging the world into a "grey zone" between local wars and the new cold war. In the traditional sense, there are relatively clear paths, market expectations, and even the "salvation" of water。

this local conflict is extremely uncertain and is filled with "unknown unknowns". this uncertainty is fatal for a high reliance on a stable expected venture capital market. when large capital is unable to judge future trends, the most rational choice is to be cashier and stand-off rather than to allocate funds to high-risk, volatile assets。

Why didn't the other assets fall

IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE SILHOUETTE OF THE MONEY RING, THE MARKET FOR PRECIOUS METALS, AMERICAN SHARES, A SHARES, ETC. HAS INCREASED SINCE 2025. THE RISE IN THESE MARKETS, HOWEVER, IS NOT DUE TO A GENERAL CHANGE IN MACRO AND LIQUIDITY FUNDAMENTALS, BUT RATHER TO STRUCTURAL DYNAMICS DRIVEN BY SOVEREIGN WILL AND INDUSTRIAL POLICY IN THE CONTEXT OF LARGE POWER GAMES。

The rise in gold is the response of sovereign States to the existing international order, rooted in the credit gap in the dollar system. The global financial tsunami of 2008 and the freezing of Russian foreign exchange reserves in 2022 have completely broken the "risk-free" myth of the dollar and the United States debt as the ultimate global reserve asset. Against this background, global central banks have become “price-insensitive buyers”. They do not buy gold for the short term, but rather for an ultimate value storage tool that does not depend on any sovereign credit。

According to the World Gold Association, for two consecutive years in 2022 and 2023, global central banks have recorded a record net purchase of more than 1,000 tons. This round of gold rose mainly by official rather than market-based speculative forces。

The share of gold in the reserves of the central banks of sovereign States compared to the United States Treasury debt

THE RISE IN STOCK MARKETS IS A REFLECTION OF NATIONAL INDUSTRIAL POLICY. WHETHER IT IS THE US 'AI NATIONALIZATION' STRATEGY OR CHINA'S "INDUSTRIAL AUTONOMY" APPROACH, THE STATE FORCES ARE DEEPLY INVOLVED AND DOMINATE CAPITAL FLOWS。

In the case of the United States, through the Chips and Science Act, the AI industry has been raised to the strategic level of national security. There is a clear outflow of funds from large science and technology units into more growth- and policy-oriented small and medium-sized holdings。

IN CHINESE STOCK MARKET A, FUNDS ARE ALSO HIGHLY CONCENTRATED IN THE AREAS OF "NOBOK", "FDN WORKERS" AND NATIONAL SECURITY AND INDUSTRIAL UPGRADING. THIS GOVERNMENT-DOMINATED PRACTICE, ITS PRICING LOGIC AND THE BITCOIN THAT RELIES ON PURELY MARKET-DRIVEN LIQUIDITY ARE NATURALLY DIFFERENT。

Will history repeat itself

Bitcoin is not the first time in history that there has been a fragmentation of other asset performance. And each split ends with a strong rebound of bitcoin。

IN TOTAL, THERE HAVE BEEN FOUR CASES OF EXTREME OVERSALE OF THE HISTORICAL BITCOIN RELATIVE TO GOLD, I.E., 2015, 2018, 2022 AND 2025。

Each time, when the relative gold of bitcoin is grossly underestimated, it bodes well for a rebound in exchange rates or in the price of bitcoin。

BITCOIN/GOLDENHISTORICAL TRENDS, BELOW RSI

IN 2015, AT THE END OF BEAR CITY, BITCOIN FELL BY 30 RELATIVE TO GOLD RSI AND THEN OPENED UP SUPERCOW CITY 2016-2017。

IN 2018, IN BEAR CITY, BITCOIN FELL BY MORE THAN 40 PER CENT, WHILE GOLD ROSE BY ALMOST 6 PER CENT. AFTER IRSI FELL 30, BITCOIN STARTED AT A LOW POINT IN 2020 AND REBOUNDED MORE THAN 770%。

IN 2022, BITCOIN FELL BY ALMOST 60% IN BEAR CITY. RSI FELL 30 YEARS LATER, BITCOIN BOUNCED, RAN FOR GOLD AGAIN。

BY THE END OF 2025 AND NOW, FOR THE FOURTH TIME, WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS HISTORIC SIGNAL OF OVERSELLING. GOLD SURGED 64 PER CENT IN 2025, WHILE BITCOIN RELATIVE TO GOLD'S RSI FELL BACK INTO THE OVERSALE ZONE。

Are there any other assets we can raise now

IT MAY BE A DANGEROUS DECISION TO EASILY SELL ENCRYPTED ASSETS IN THE NOISE OF THE ABC TO BOOST OTHER MARKETS THAT NOW SEEM MORE PROSPEROUS。

As the United States small capitalization stock began to rise, it was often the last festivities in history before the end of the cow market。The Russell 2000 index has risen by more than 45 per cent since its low point in 2025, but most of its component shares are less profitable and sensitive to interest rate movements. The vulnerability of these companies will be revealed as soon as the Fed ' s monetary policy falls short of expectations。

SECOND, THE AROMATIC FIERY OF THE AI PLATE IS TYPICAL OF BUBBLES. WHETHER IT'S A DEUTSCHE BANK INVESTIGATION OR A WARNING FROM DALIO, THE FOUNDER OF THE BRIDGE WATER FOUNDATIONALL LISTED AI FOAM AS THE BIGGEST MARKET RISK IN 2026I don't know。

In Weida, Palantir, these star companies, whose valuations have reached historical highs, are increasingly being questioned as to whether their profit growth can sustain such high valuations. The deeper risk is that AI’s huge energy consumption could trigger a new round of inflationary pressure, forcing central banks to tighten monetary policy and break asset bubbles。

According to a January survey by the Bank of America fund manager, global investor optimism is currently rising since July 2021, with global growth expected to surge。Cash holdings have fallen to a record low of 3.2 per cent, and protection against market recall has been at its lowest level since January 2018。

On the one hand, there is a massive rise in sovereign assets, a generally optimistic investor sentiment; on the other hand, there is a growing geo-conflict。

Against this background, bitcoin's "stagnating" is not as simple as "lost." It is more like a sobering signal, an early warning of greater risks for the future, and a build-up for a larger narrative。

For real long-termists, this is the time to test faith, reject temptation and prepare for the impending crises and opportunities。