Major's phone and the forecast market for the Emperor's new coat
2026Year5Month, The Guardian revealed together withPolymarketRelated cases。
Israeli prosecution charges Tel Aviv menOmer Zivand an Israeli Air Force reserve major suspected of using classified information related to the time of military operationsPolymarketTrade in war-related contracts. The prosecution claims that this major told us about itZivI don't knowZivAnd then, through multiple accounts, the profits were higher15$ million. Both are currently facing multiple charges of bribery, obstruction of justice and security offences。
This appears to be a successful deal on the whole of the forecast market. One person was caught in a war event, probably because he was really professional, understood open signals, stared at flight tracks, satellite imagery, official language and news release rhythms, and put together several pieces in advance to judge that the operating window ultimately profited from the market. But the reality may also be absurd, because he is a source of internal information, even if he himself is an insider, naturally knows the time of action, and then bets on the market, which is equivalent to an athlete's bet on his own game, and buys his own. Such traders do not need reasoning, do not need modelling, do not need to wait until the news is made public, and the whole of the forecast market simply does not know if he cheated. Since the participating account records gains and losses only, it does not automatically tell the outside world whether the money is for judgement or for information privileges。
Such problems have long been common in traditional financial markets. When a person buys shares precisely before the company announces, regulation does not just say he has a good eye. The Supervisory Authority examines whether he has any relationship with the company, the firm, the investment bank, the consultant or the counterparty. The time of the transaction, the behaviour of the account and the possibility of access to information cannot even be avoided completely。
It is predicted that the market will only be more complex and more complex than the events encountered. War, elections, regulatory approvals, corporate announcements, sports injuries and illnesses, each incident has its own information upstream. The closer the upstream, the easier it is to cash in the market earlier. For example, during a war operation, ordinary users can only guess, while within the military they know in advance. Whether the company's acquisition has been completed, the announcement is read by ordinary users and the core team and consultants have been informed in advance. The team's medical team has written its own answers。
What happens when this insider gets into a tradable market? Markets will become more accurate, as insider news is far more reliable than usual. But this wayPolymarketAre the core values meaningful? The forecast market would have been for real time to compress judgement, information and funds scattered in the market into a tradable probability of events. But if this probability is driven mainly by insider information, it no longer represents the collective judgment of the open market
The traditional forecast market is hard to escape from the human box. An insider bets in advance and puts the result in a bet, and afterwards it is perfectly possible to say that he buys on the basis of feelings or that he is just lucky. Unless the platform or regulatory body finds evidence of his access to insider information, it is difficult for the market to prove that the proceeds were fraudulent. The transaction records only show what he bought, when he bought, how much he earned, but it is difficult to prove why he bought it。
This is unfair to other participants. Common users are still judging with open information, while insider traders have already obtained answers. And then the information about the higher odds is taken away“..PredictabilityIt's not the sameThe coat。
It is also a structural weakness of purely artificial forecasting markets. Human bets can be unexplained. A person may refuse to give reasons, or may create them ex post facto. It is difficult for the platform to require that each transaction be accompanied by a complete chain of evidence. Even if requested, a person may submit a prima facie but unverifiable interpretation。
If you predict the marketI'm sorryParticipation, rules could be redesigned。AIA chain of evidence, logic and progression is required before a bet is filed. It can be recorded why it supports an outcome by citing what is open sources, how it deals with conflict information, and why confidence is revised upwards or downwards. These records can be chained up and entered into auditable files and can be viewed in retrospect at the time of dispute, re-entry or regulatory review。
It's not just a market assessment“..Who got itIt's not the sameIt also includes“..How'd he get itIt's not the sameI don't know. OneAILong-term success requires the demonstration of stable public information processing, reasoning quality and calibration capabilities. To make sure that it gets its rewards from better analysis rather than relying on insider information, the Emperor's new suit。
The future predicts that the market will beI'm sorryThe world. The human betting process is too difficult to penetrate, and it can be judged, or lucky, or even disguised as a capability。I'm sorryAt a minimum, they can be asked to leave behind evidence, logic, chain of push and time stamp to facilitate regulatory review and review. It is not enough to predict that the market wants to enter a wider financial field, but to prove that it is based on an accurate and verifiable judgement, so that the information generated by the market is of value. It's hard to do it in a purely artificial marketAIParticipating auditable markets are the next generation of forecast markets。
