How do we catch the next Alpha that predicts the market narrative
Over the past three months, there have been countless discussions on Twitter about how much @Polymarket is worth. How far can this new narrative go, how far can it go, and where can it go when it predicts a market narrative, compared to encrypted currency or AI。
At the same time, Wall Street tried to price everything in the world, but those elites forgot to price something that really mattered。
whether you're a prognostic market trader, a quantitative big player, a market player, a projecter, or a squirt, this article is for you, and it is for me, as the founder of the insiders.bot, and an old ordinary forecast market player, to reformulate the narrative of the “predict market” and what kind of narrative would fit into the prognosis of the market。
Four hundred years of price-fixing
Four hundred years。
From 1602, when the Dutch company East India released its first human stock, it took us 400 years to answer one question:
How much is one thing worth
Over 400 years, smart people have developed a set of valuation models. DCF, PE, SOTP, Comps -- each is trying to use formulas to capture the truth of value。
But what is the truth
The truth is, these models never really explain their value. They only give a small number of people a reason to charge another。
You've thought about the fact that there are only two real roles in the real world without the complex valuation frameworks that business schools teach you:
First, raise the industry threshold. Let enough people feel "financially difficult" so that a small number of people can make big money。
SECONDLY, GIVE YOU A PAPER, A NUMBER, A STARTING POINT FOR NEGOTIATIONS. YOU WALK INTO THE CONFERENCE ROOM, AND YOU FIGURE OUT THE DCF MODEL THAT HITS THE TABLE -- IT'S NOT THE TRUTH, IT'S A BARGAINING TOOL。
That's all。
WHAT WAS HE ACTUALLY DOING WHEN A SCHOOL GRADUATE SPENT 72 HOURS ON A THREE-PAGE DCF MODEL AND TOOK SEVEN-DIGIT-YEAR PAY TO A "PRICING" COMPANY
He was arbitrating with academic qualifications and poor information. The same thing Wall Street has done for 400 years。
When foam comes, these models never warn. When the foam breaks, the models are always self-defensive。
After each crisis, financial workers did not reflect on the failure of the model itself — they found new variables, new assumptions, new pretexts, mispackaging the "black swan" and continuing to pump water in this huge financial machine。
The valuation model does not predict the future. It is responsible only for ex post facto interpretation. And every "ex post" is a ticket that Wall Street continues to charge。
But there is one thing that is happening here, and most people are not aware of it。
Those parts of the valuation model that could never be captured, such as events, expectations, human collective judgement about the future, are being priced by an entirely new mechanism。
Forecast market. Yes or No。
There are no 300 pages of pitch book, no terms that require MBA degrees to understand, and there are no WACC assumptions that only insiders know。
There's only one problem, one price, a zero-sum game。
The forecast market is turning "incident" itself into a tradable asset。
I call it"event as an asset"I don't know。
THIS IS SOMETHING THAT DCF CAN'T MODEL, THAT PE CAN'T MEASURE, BUT THAT REALLY AFFECTS THE PRICE OF EVERY TRADITIONAL ASSET ON EARTH. WAR, ELECTIONS, POLICIES, TECHNOLOGICAL BREAKTHROUGHS — THESE “EVENTS” HAVE ALWAYS BEEN THE MOST CENTRAL VARIABLES IN ASSET PRICING, BUT FOR 400 YEARS NO MODEL HAS REALLY GIVEN THEM AN INDEPENDENT PRICE。
Until now。
The zero-sum game of forecast markets is becoming the missing corner of the traditional financial valuation system. It is not replacing Wall Street, it is completing what Wall Street has never done in 400 years。
Events, valued atoms
What is the essence of finance
Pricing。
HOW ARE STOCKS PRICED? PE, PROFIT GROWTH, DCF. TRANSLATION INTO HUMAN LANGUAGE: STOCKS ARE THE SUM OF ALL THE VALUES THAT COMPANIES CAN GENERATE IN THE FUTURE。
but the question is, who's right about the future
Nobody's in charge。
So when an accident happens and people shake faith in the future, stock prices follow。
This logic is the same for any asset:
Gold to 700? Because the market expects cash to become less valuable. One million bitcoin? The same thing. Subprime boom in 2008? Because everyone believed that borrowers would not default。
This is not financial nihilism. This is the lowest operating logic of finance。
Financial binds are the value that assets can create. But the value that assets can create is tied to the uncertainty of the future — that is, the event。
So the event itself, not only can be priced, but must be priced。
More simply:
The essence of finance is pricing. Pricing is essentially expected. The essence of the expectation is the event。
From the point of view of financial history, the link is clearer。
Let's break it from the financial history。
At the earliest, we looked only at physical assets: land, machines。
Subsequently, an inventory, processes began。
The Internet era has come, and we have begun to look at expected gains, brands, intangible assets, Goodwill。
In order to package all the variables that affect valuation once, we have devised the simplest way to determine the price of assets by using the sum of discounts expected from profits。
In order to sum up these increasingly abstract elements once and for all, finance has chosen one of the simplest and harshest practices — the sum of future profit expectations — to determine today's value。
SO THE ENTIRE FINANCIAL WORLD BECAME A GAME OF EXPECTATIONS. K-LINED UP AND DOWN, ESSENTIALLY, IS EXPECTED。
Take an example。
All in In Weaverda gives you a lot of reason:
-
AI, HOW HIGH CAN YVETTE GET OUT OF THE CAGR
-
IN THE FUTURE, AI, HOW MUCH VALUE IN THE WORLD IS YOUNG WAIDA
-
A “reasonable” valuation is calculated using a multiple of collections and asset ratios
AND THEN THEY PILE UP A BUNCH OF HYPOTHETICAL NUMBERS AND USE THE DCF TO TELL YOU:
"The current stock price is far below the target price calculated by our model."
AND THEN THEY MODEL IT WITH A BUNCH OF HYPOTHETICAL NUMBERS, RUN OUT OF A DCF VALUATION, AND FINALLY TELL YOU THAT THE PRICE IS FAR BELOW THE "REASONABLE VALUE" THEY CALCULATED。
But have you ever thought about what these assumptions are
They are nothing but a gathering of events。
Whether the next-generation chip of Yin Weida is much more than a parallel -- an event。
Does OpenAI continue to use the British chip-incident。
Stable capacity of power generation - event。
All the hypotheses, the end, are incidents。
But the most basic variable, "incident", has never been priced separately in the framework of traditional finance。
A typhoon can bring a factory to waste。
Once a player is injured, the club's market value falls sharply。
A government pause could force large-scale lay-offs of rapidly growing businesses。
These events are daily, authentic and violent rewriting of the value of assets. But in Wall Street's valuation model, they're just a blurry footnote under "risk factor"。
I studied top business at the Chinese University of Hong Kong and went to Walton Finance. But to be honest, I always felt that there was a deep-rooted hypocrisy in traditional finance。
The professor told you that the valuation would be rationalized。
THE CHIEF TOLD YOU THAT THE PPT COULD RUN LOGICALLY。
The Bank's reports are running out of time, and the annual audit paper was sent out with 50 Hong Kong dollars per hour for interns. The market is far from as they say。
These elites, turning a blind eye to the core variable of "incidents", earn millions of years with a hypothetical "reasonable" valuation。
Event assets, Missing Pierce of modern finance。
Looking back, every major leap in financial valuation has taken place at a time when we have learned to price new dimensions。
The first valuation revolution took place in the millennium - the network effects of Internet products were rationalized for the first time when markets finally learned to incorporate profit growth into the valuation. An entire generation of technology giants was born。
When we learned to price the event itself, the second valuation revolution began。
And that is exactly what the forecast market is doing today。
The zero-sum game is wearing a suit
"The essence of finance is the realization."
That's from me being small. He just got JP Morgan IBD's return offer, which he used to call Zoey。
In his worldview, buying stock is buying "the future income stream". When the price arrived, he gave the chips gracefully to the next occupant — what he called a prize for value discovery。
We have a bond with our enemies and friends. But to tell the truth, I have always had a chilling and incomprehensible doubt about the logic of the business school, which he is proud of。
Because when you tear that up to the bottom, you'll find..
The dignity of traditional finance is nothing more than the looting of liquidity and redistribution of assets, packaged as "a reward for the correct valuation"。
This floor of window paper must be broken today。
The bottom faith of Wall Street elites is based on three very fragile assumptions。
First tier: valuation illusions。
They believed that assets were the sum of future gains. The low price is because "I saw the truth before the market." But as the previous paragraph made clear — the so-called “truth” — is only a set of speculations about future events. No one really saw the truth, and everyone is nothing but a note of custody。
Second tier: rationalization of transactions。
High-level sales, known as "fair deal" on Wall Street. Here's the logic — as long as I think the current valuation is reasonable, it's right to sell it to the Catcher. As for the person who's on the switch, is it because of cognitive deviation? That's his problem, not my responsibility。
The narrative is so sophisticated, so it's all about being honest。
The third, and the largest, veiled lie — straight and game。
It's the core of traditional finance: companies are growing, cakes are growing, so we're all winning。
But what is the reality
CASH FLOWS IN THE MARKET ARE DOMINATED BY MACRO-LIQUIDITY AND BY THE GROWTH OF SINGLE COMPANIES. AND WHEN YOU BUY LOW AND HIGH, YOU DISTRIBUTE HIS ASSETS AMONG HIS OWN POCKETS. EVEN IF THE COMPANY REALLY MAKES MORE PROFITS IN A QUARTER, UNDER THE DCF ALGORITHM, THE MAJORITY OF STOCK PRICES ARE STILL SUPPORTED BY "EXPECTED" RATHER THAN "REALISTIC"。
Every penny you make is basically the money someone misjudged for the future。
It's not pessimism. It's a zero-sum game bottom code。
Speaking of which, a lot of people may have been trying to argue, "Well, isn't forecasting the market a gamble? Isn't that more zero-sum?"
Exactly. The forecast market is zero-sum game. But that is precisely its superiority。
What traditional finance does is wrap a zero-sum game into a positive game that allows participants to harvest each other in the illusion of "investment in value" and think that they are creating value。
What the market does is predict the nature of the zero-sum game and then operate it with a more pure and efficient mechanism。
When you strip off the hypocritical "value investment" in traditional finance, you find that the bottom logic of predicting markets and asset pricing is not only co-sourced, but even cleaner。
Why
Because the three things that stock markets are really doing are predicted to be perfect and optimized -
Cognition is Alpha。and when you find that there's a deviation between real probability and market odds, you find mespricing. this is no logical difference from finding an undervalued stock. the only difference is that predicting markets doesn't require you to pretend you're investing in the future。
The deal is hedge。In predicting an event's position in the market, you can do it for speculation or to hedge against the real risks in the real world — for example, to do multi-oil fluctuations to protect your energy stock. Handkey logic, fully consistent with stock market。
And the most important thing is that immediate value anchors。
TAKE AN EXAMPLE. WHEN A REVOLUTIONARY MODEL WAS RELEASED BY AN AI COMPANY, THE VALUATION OF ITS COMPETITORS ON THE TRACK FELL. IN TRADITIONAL FINANCE, THIS TRANSFER OF VALUE WILL NOT BE FULLY REFLECTED UNTIL THE NEXT FINANCIAL SEASON OR EVEN THE NEXT ANNUAL REPORT. ANALYSTS ARE REMODELING, THE BANK IS UPDATING ITS RESEARCH AND THE MARKET IS SLOWLY DIGESTING。
But in the forecast market
IT DIRECTLY DEALS "AI BREAKING" WITH THE INCIDENT ITSELF. VALUE SHIFTS, OCCURRING IN REAL TIME。
NO LAG, NO MIDDLEMAN, NO ONE'S USING PPT TO TELL YOU "OUR MODEL SHOWS..."。
The forecast market is a zero-sum game of absolute honesty that has been stripped of hypocritical packaging and that fully corresponds to asset pricing logic。
Here, the logic chain is complete。
The valuation of traditional finance is anchored in "future cash flows". But what constitutes future cash flows
It is a specific, identifiable and verifiable event。
A SaaS product can be renewed for the next year's big customer-incident。
A brand won't start a crisis of trust - an event。
A regulatory policy will not land — events。
In traditional finance, these events are reflected in stock prices slowly and distortedly through extremely complex transmission mechanisms. Analysts use models to guess, traders gamble intuitively, and dispersed emotions to chase. Each layer is making noise, and each layer is losing it。
And the forecast market did something that nobody had ever done — it priced the event itself。
No model. No narrative. Not through any middle layer。
When events are considered to be a tradable asset, the chain of the traditional financial "valuable hypothetical event" is completely compressed. We no longer need to take a long circle to guess how events affect cash flows, how valuations are affected and how prices are affected. We deal directly with the incident itself。
That's why I said..
Events, assets, are today's finance Missing Pierce。
The nature of the zero-sum game will in no way shake this judgement. On the contrary — it is because of the recognition of the reality of zero-sum games that we can leave behind those hypocritical packagings and touch the real pricing core。
In an ideal future, an enterprise can predict the impact of a market-precision hedge on valuation. Investors can deal directly with the "incident" itself, not indirectly with a stock. Individuals can build positions in the chain for events of concern to them and participate in a transparent, non-licensed pricing process。
It's not gambling. This is the most profound revision of traditional financial models。
It is the financial world that predicts the market without lies and facing the future。
Eight billion dollars
Let's pull our eyes back to my little one。
In a debate about the zero-sum nature of traditional finance, he interrupted me and said something that made my memory fresh -
"You're essentially demonizing traditional finance."
I stopped for a few seconds。
Not because I was convinced, but because I realized that if even he, one of the smartest peers I know, understood that, most people who read the article might have the same misreading。
So before proceeding, I must make my position clear。
I never wanted to "no" zero-sum games. What I want to deny is the hypocrisy of participating in zero-sum games while pretending not to be among them。
It's two completely different things。
The biggest mistake of traditional financial practitioners is not to create a zero-sum game. – The zero-sum game itself does not need anyone to create it; it is the bottom of the market. Their true fallacy is:Zero-sum games, but never knowing。They wrap themselves in the narratives of "value investment" and "long-termism" and make themselves psychologically a "generator" rather than a "harvester"。
That is the problem。
SIMILARLY, I HAD NO INTENTION OF DENYING ALL PREVIOUS VALUATION MODELS. ON THE CONTRARY — MOST VALUATION MODELS ARE VALID. DCFS, COMPARABLE COMPANY LAW, PRECEDENT TRADING LAW PROVIDE MEANINGFUL REFERENCE COORDINATES IN A GIVEN SCENARIO。
WHEN AN INNOVATOR NEEDS AN IPO, THESE MODELS GIVE THE MARKET A NUMBER AGAINST THE TARGET. THESE FIGURES GIVE SOME QUANTIFIABLE ANCHORS TO THE UNCERTAIN FUTURE WHEN ENTERPRISES OF A CERTAIN SIZE HAVE TO HEDGE RISKS。
But effectiveness is not complete。
The flaws in these models are not "wrong," but "grain." At the system level, they have structural particle size deficiencies。
That's exactly what the Incident Asset is filling in。
Now let me pull this up on the ground。
What is the greatest value of zero-sum games
Not for some people to make money. Not to make the market look efficient。
The greatest value of zero-sum games is through countless re-pricings to provide indefinable fuel for innovation and error in promoting human development。
Every price swing, every game of space, is essentially the market answering the same question — how much is this thing worth? It is this process that is constantly being answered and amended to allow capital to continue to flow to new ideas, new companies and new technologies。
If zero-sum games are engines, then "pricing" is fuel。
The event asset, on the other hand, gave the engine an unprecedented high purity fuel。
Why? Because all assets are driven by expectations, event assets give each market participant a truly fine-tuned opportunity to participate in financial engineering — no longer in three-tier intermediate variables, but in direct contact with the root cause of the drive。
It's too abstract to say, "Fine financial engineering." Let me tell a true story。
Qingshan Holdings. One of China's largest stainless steel companies。
IN ORDER TO PREVENT THE DECLINE IN NICKEL PRICES FROM ERODING PROFITS, GREEN HILL HAS CREATED A LARGE NUMBER OF EMPTY POSITIONS IN THE LONDON METAL EXCHANGE (LME). THE HEDGE OPERATION AT THE TEXTBOOK LEVEL IS LOGICALLY IMPECCABLE。
But the problem is that there's an extremely delicate mismatch
QINGSHAN PRODUCES NICKEL IRON AND ICED NICKEL, WHILE LME NICKEL FUTURES CONTRACTS REQUIRE DELIVERY OF PRIMARY NICKEL OF NOT LESS THAN 99.8 PER CENT PURITY。
WHEN THE RUSSIAN-UU CONFLICT ERUPTED IN 2022, THE PRICE OF FIRST-LEVEL NICKEL SURGED IN EXTREMES, THE ICE-RICH NICKEL IN THE HANDS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN COULD NOT BE CUT OFF AT THE LME LEVEL。
The hedge tool is not working. An operation designed to reduce risks creates catastrophic risks。
Final loss: over $8 billion。
Now, let's do a thought experiment。
Assuming that at that point in time, the Green Mountain wind control team could access a fully liquid forecast market. They don't have to guess if the price of nickel is going to fall -- it's so thick that it can't capture the real source of risk。
They can deal directly with the incident itself: "Is the Russian-Uu conflict going to full-scale war in the next three months?"。
If this event had taken place, Green Mountain's sprinting strategy would not have been pierced by the problem of the particle size of a financial instrument such as "cutting off." Because they're no longer dealing with the vague proxy variable of nickel prices, but the bottom event that really affects their position。
Traditional financial instruments fail to solve problems — not because they are wrong in logic, but because they are not sufficiently fine。
That's the exact meaning。
The price of an asset may be influenced by hundreds of different events. Tariff policies, supply chain disruptions, technological breakthroughs, regulatory changes, geo-conflicts In the context of traditional finance, you can only hedge these risks with some of the "proximate proxy tools" -- the mismatch between these agents and real risks is the hotbed of countless "green mountain events."。
When we are able to directly allocate assets in anticipation of events, there is a real solution to the systemic mismatch of traditional financial instruments due to their "too broad" scope。
It's not my wish. History has given us a perfect analogy。
IN 1973, ON THE FIRST DAY OF THE INTRODUCTION OF STANDARDIZED OPTIONS BY THE CHICAGO PRESIDENCIES EXCHANGE (CBEE), LESS THAN 1,000 CONTRACTS WERE TRADED THROUGHOUT THE DAY。
Looking back today, it was the worst day in financial history and one of the most important。
After almost six decades, options-based derivatives have been proliferating - odd options, structured products, volatilities curvatures... These tools have never been available and ultimately carry the trillion-dollar corporate risk hedge demand。
The market is projected to be in the same position today as it was in 1973。
Early mobility? Yes. Market recognition is not yet mature? Yes. Most people still gamble on it? Right。
But if you understand the logic of event or asset, you realize that it's not another gambling tool, but the next paradigm of financial infrastructure. For today ' s forecast market, the paradigm has been fully accepted from now to that point, implying over 100 times the growth space。
THERE IS A DEEPER LOGIC — AI。
IN THE AI ERA, OUR DEMAND FOR SOPHISTICATED FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS IS NOT LINEAR GROWTH, BUT INDEX-BASED。
Why? Because AI's power boundary is the number of factors that it can handle simultaneously. A traditional hedge fund analyst who can track 20-30 variables is already the top level. But an AI Agent? It analyses the probability distribution of hundreds of event factors at the same time and adjusts the position in real time to maximize Sharpe Ratio。
But on what basis
Presumably these events must be "tradable"。
IF ONLY THE TRADITIONAL TOOLS OF STOCKS, BONDS AND FUTURES ARE AVAILABLE ON THE MARKET, AI CAN ONLY BUILD A COMBINATION WITH LEGO, WHICH IS "COARSE PARTICLES". IT'S LIMITED BY THE PRECISION OF THE TOOL ITSELF。
AND THE PREDICTION OF MARKETS IS EXACTLY THE KIND OF ATOMIC-LEVEL FINANCE THAT AI NEEDS -- EVERY EVENT IS AN INDEPENDENT, TRADABLE, GROUPABLE PRICING UNIT. WHEN THESE MODULES ARE SUFFICIENTLY RICH, AI CAN BUILD AND ADJUST ITS PORTFOLIO WITH UNPRECEDENTED PRECISION。
A MORE INTERNET-BASED, MORE COMMODIFIABLE AND FINE FINANCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE IS NOT "ADDING FLOWERS" -- IT IS AN ESSENTIAL PREREQUISITE FOR THE AI FINANCIAL REVOLUTION。
If Bitcoin is "digitized and infinitely divided" then the market is predicted to be "infinitely divided asset allocation"。
One redefined the currency itself. The other is to redefine the way we allocate risks and expectations。
It's the best I can do
I know what you're thinking。
"$POLY IS THE TOP COIN."
ANOTHER PVP PLATE
Without wealth, nobody plays
I've heard everything. More than once。
Those words are not one person's prejudice — a muscle memory that the entire circle of currency has been trained after countless narrative rotations. Art x Web3 is dead. GameFi is dead. Move-to-Earn is dead. So the market is predicted to die。
The logical chain is so clear and comfortable that it's made of air drops and deliveries and chicken hairs。
I understand this instinct。
But it's this hunch that will make you miss the biggest financial change in 2026。
Because you're using the Ponzi framework to understand the best。
Let me explain what it means to be the best。
To do a simplest thought experiment --
IF TOMORROW'S MACROECONOMIC COLLAPSE AND THE PRICE OF INGWEIDA'S STOCK IS CUT, WILL YOU CONCLUDE THAT GPU IS DEAD
WILL YOU STOP TRAINING THE AI MODEL WITH GPU
Absolutely not。
WHY? BECAUSE GPU IS THE BEST SOLUTION TO MATH. ITS VALUE DOES NOT COME FROM THE STOCK PRICE, BUT FROM AN OBJECTIVE DEMAND THAT IS NOT DIVERTED BY THE WILL OF ANYONE — THE CALCULUS. THE STOCK PRICE CAN BE CUT, BUT THE NEED FOR COMPUTING WILL NOT REDUCE ONE FLOP。
When one thing becomes the best thing, the fluctuations in valuation cease to be its death sentence。
This is the only criterion for distinguishing between narrative and infrastructure。
In the same logic, why does the Meme coin not die in this cycle, though less liquid
Not because Meme has "value". It's because Meme is the best solution to the money-circle. You can't find a way to cut it down, and you can't find a more pure focus realization logic. Meme has a market as long as speculative demand exists。
Why did GameFi die? Because GameFi is not the best solution to anything. It's valuation driven -- when Token is worthless, nobody wants to play that game that's not funny by itself. Its life cycle is tied to the K line, the K line is zero, and it's zero。
The forecast market is different. It's the best way to price events。
As long as humankind still has to prejudge the future, and humanity is prejudging the future every second, there is an irreplaceable value in predicting markets。
THE PRICE OF $POLY MAY BE CONSTANTLY SHAKING。
But Polymarket won't die. Like Coinbase's $COIN stock price fluctuations, never stopped USDC's exponential expansion. The carrier ' s valuation will fluctuate, but the bottom demand will not disappear。
If you think I'm painting cookies, look at Kalshi。
No, Token. No DeFi Lego. Even face the regulatory weight of the CTC。
But it is still booming。
What does that mean
It says that "pricing an event" is itself a huge, real demand. It is not dependent on Web3 bubbles, on airdrop expectations, on any so-called narrative。
Need to be there. Whatever technology you use to carry it, it's there。
The question then becomes, if the forecast market itself is not dependent on encrypted money, why do we need to put it on the chain
THE ANSWER IS EXACTLY THE SAME AS THE RWA。
Global liquidity. Capital without borders can compete in the same market。
Transparency. That is, all transactions and settlements are searchable on the chain。
Portable. As part of DeFi Lego, it's embedded in other financial agreements。
Did you find out
The logic of explaining “why markets should be chained up” and “why United States debt should be chained up” is entirely the same。
You don't say, "The bonds of the chain are a narrative of the currency," but what makes you say, "The chains predict that the market is a narrative of the currency that runs away?"
The chain predicts the market and is essentially a chain stock。
We're not going to e-commerce because of stocks. We're going to call them Internet products. Electronicization only made stock transactions more efficient, but stock values never came from the Internet, but from the enterprise itself。
By the same token, the block chains only allow for more efficient, transparent and global availability of projected market settlements. But predicting the value of the market never comes from a block chain; it comes from the indelible need for humans to price "incidents"。
Shortening the forecast market into a "currency-circle narrative" is as absurd as constricting stocks into an "Internet product"。
It's a cognitive error. And it's creating a huge cognitive arbitrage。
IF YOU STARE AT THE PROJECTION OF THE $POLY AIR DROP, YOU SEE THE FIRST FLOOR. BECAUSE IT'S REALLY THE HOPE OF A HYPER, $UNI AIR DROP。
If you see the difference between Kalshi and Polymarket, one is compliance, the other is global liquidity, and you see the second layer。
And the truth is on the third level: events should be assets. And predicting the market is the only effective place in 2026 for all mankind to price and trade "incident assets"。
It's not the "Little Monopolies." Not the next GameFi. Not another PVP plate。
It is the missing link in the financial infrastructure。
This is the end。
Kill the dice of God
In my senior year, a typhoon rewrited my life。
I WAS DOING MY BEST TO PREPARE THE MT EXAM, AND THE TARGET WAS TO HIT OXFORD. EVERYTHING'S ON SCHEDULE. THEN HONG KONG HUNG UP THE "NIG" TYPHOON AND THE EXAM WAS CANCELED。
That's it. No warning, no buffer. A weather event that I could not predict, compete with or even perceive in advance cut off my route to Britain。
But what's weird about fate is that the typhoon left me in Hong Kong, where I met @0xUClub's partner and finally stepped into Web3。
If it hadn't been for that typhoon, I'd probably have finished my undergraduate studies in Oxford, gone into an investment or consulting firm, become a man of discipline in the traditional world. I won't write this article and you won't read it。
A typhoon completed the "repricing" of my personal valuation。
It's not a metaphor. That's literally what it means。
But there is another side to this story。
Suppose in the second year of high school, I realized that my life was being reshaped by outside events, that I could see this signal earlier, and that All-In would study trades and projects earlier, and that I might be in a completely different position today。
I have wasted a whole number of years, not because of my lack of effort, but because I did not have the tools to sense that event, which is changing my destiny。
I was pushed here by fate。
And what I want to do is to let the people of the future "go" where they should go。
In the preceding chapters, we deconstruct financial assets — how events participate in the valuation of stocks, commodities, derivatives。
Now, I want to turn the camera to something more fundamental: the individual。
The real ambition to predict market and event assets has never merely provided a new instrument of speculation for financial markets。
Its ultimate ambition is to give every individual the right to walk voluntarily in uncertainty。
Every single one of us, every day, is pushed away by the "incident." Policy changes, economic volatility, technological trajectories, geo-conflicts and even a typhoon — events that constantly price our lives — are largely unknown to us。
We are passive recipients of events. And the deal is to move us from passive to active participants。
This is our first step in killing God's roll。
Not to eliminate uncertainty — no one can do that。
It is about making uncertainty detectable, quantifiable and tradable。
Imagine the world..
YOU NO LONGER WAIT PASSIVELY FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THE POLITICAL BLACK SWAN. YOU TURN ON YOUR CELL PHONE AND SEE THAT THE ODDS OF A GEOLOGIC EVENT HAVE SOARED FROM 12% TO 47% IN 48 HOURS, AND YOU, LIKE THE P-WAVE OF AN EARTHQUAKE, HAVE BEGUN TO ADJUST YOUR POSITION, PLAN AND EVEN CAREER BEFORE THE SHOCK WAVE ARRIVES。
You no longer speculate blindly how economic policy affects your assets. The market has voted for the probability distribution, and all you have to do is decide on it — not on the subjective judgement of an analyst, but on the collective wisdom of the whole market。
Even a small game -- real-time margin changes on the chain tell you that this game probably loses its suspense in the third section. You decided not to waste two hours sitting in front of the screen to do something more valuable。
These are not science fiction. These are natural extensions that predict markets after infrastructure has matured。
But I want to say more than that。
Future predictive markets should not be something you need to "open an App" to use。
It should be like air — everywhere, but invisible。
It is the sorting algorithm behind news delivery - no more clicks, but changes in the probability of an event, giving you the first chance to see really important information。
It's the bottom logic of AI's assistant decision-making -- when your AI Agent manages your portfolio, it's not the analyst's report, it's the probability change of thousands of event contracts。
It is a response tool in the airtime — the audience is no longer just a reward, but rather an expression of position and attention by predicting the outcome of the competition。
It's even the bottom asset of the fund -- the low-risk, robust fund you bought, and 30 percent of the hedge strategy is made up of incident contracts, and you don't even know it。
JUST AS TODAY'S PEOPLE DON'T NEED TO UNDERSTAND THAT TCP/IP PROTOCOLS CAN DO SHORT VIDEOS, FUTURE PEOPLE WILL PAY, HEDGE, MAKE DECISIONS, AND LIVE WITHOUT REALIZING IT。
They wouldn't say, "I'm using the forecast market."。
They were not even aware of the predicted existence of markets。
But behind every important decision they make, there are event assets that operate silently。
This is the final picture of "Event as an Asset"。
Not an exchange. Not an App. It's not a "money-circle narrative."。
Instead, it is a civilized infrastructure that gives human beings the tools to proactively sense, quantify and respond to uncertainty for the first time。
God's still throwing dice。
But as of today, we can finally see where the dice fall。
Four mountains on the wasteland
End of ideal。
Now let me get you back to reality。
February 2026. Right now. If you open any of the predictive market platforms, what you see isn't "financial revolution"-- - You see a casino in a Web3 suit。
The interface is rough. Mobility is thin. Users come in and gamble on an American election, win or lose, and then leave. No retention, no repurchase, no reason for a normal person to treat it as a "financial infrastructure"。
That is the reality。
I won't pretend reality doesn't exist. Because if you don't even want to face reality, you don't deserve to talk about the future。
We're still a dead wasteland from that end。
And through this wasteland, four mountains must be crossed。
And these four mountains are the source of the next Alpha you have to capture as a predictor of the market industry
First mountain: a mobile island。
This is the most fundamental and deadly issue。
Today ' s forecast market is extremely fragmented. The same event -- for example, "Is the Fed going down in June" -- is a market on Polymark, another market on Kalshi, and probably a third market on a new emerging agreement。
They have different odds. Settlement rules differ. Resolute has different criteria。
What does that mean? It means the same "incident" that is actually different "assets" on different platforms. You can't even cross the platform arbitrage because you're not wearing the same thing。
When the same event is judged on different platforms, "incident" will never be a common "assets"。
Imagine if Apple shares were defined differently at New York and NASDAQ -- New York's AAPL includes Apple Vision Pro's income, NASDAQ's AAPL doesn't include -- can this market work
That is the projection of the market today. The question of how to reach these islands and establish a uniform definition of events and standards of settlement is the greatest issue at this time. No one。
Second mountain: Lack of pricing models。
The option is Black-Scholes. Fixed returns have a long duration and a percussion. Meme coins have even developed their own economic framework of attention。
What's the forecast for the market
A Yes/No slider。
We are still trading events with the original binary game structure. There is no Greek alphabet, no volatilities, and there is no quantitative framework for institutional wind control to sign。
Our ability to price "event assets" remains in the Stone Age。
It's not a small problem. It's a question of life and death。
As there is no scientific pricing model, there is no institutional entry. Without institutional entry, there is no deep mobility. Without deep liquidity, events can never be just a gambler, not an asset class。
The causal chain is rigid. To break it, it has to start with pricing models。
The third mountain: the fault of consensus。
What's his first reaction today
"Isn't that a gamble?"
what's his first reaction
"ISN'T THIS ANOTHER PVP PLATE?"
Two worlds, the same misread。
this is not a group's intellectual problem. this is a market-wide consensus on "incident assets". traditional finance classified it as a lottery, crypto as a narrative. neither side saw its essence — an entirely new asset class。
if this is to end, we must build a cross-practice "event asset consensus". let traditional finance understand it's not gambling, let crypto understand it's not narrative。
It's not just Web3 thing. It's a project to move the karma of the real world to the chain. It requires regulatory understanding, academic endorsement and enough success stories to pierce prejudice。
This mountain, probably the highest of four。
A fourth mountain: low fertilization of product patterns。
That's the saddest thing。
I have observed almost all the projected market products on the market. What are most teams doing? They're doing "the next Meme Pump." Better-looking UI, faster betting experience, more stimulating instant feedback。
They use the forecast market as Pump.fun to do it。
This is a directional error。
If the event is an asset — and I spent the whole article arguing that — then it should have all the capital in the category of mature assets。
What's in the stock? Equities have loans, leverage, options, structured products, ETFs, indexed, corporate-level trading terminals, Prime Brokerage, and clearing houses。
What's the event asset? A "Buy Yes/ Buy No" button。
That is the absurdity of reality。
We need a loan agreement for events — so you can empty an event without having to hold it first。
We need the lever of events -- to stop capital efficiency from being locked up by 1:1 bonds。
We need event-based structured products — so that funds of different risk preferences can find the right entry。
WE NEED AN ETF PACKAGE OF EVENT ASSETS -- SO THAT ORDINARY USERS CAN CONFIGURE A BASKET OF EVENT OPENINGS。
We need institutional-level trading terminals — access to hedge funds' wind control systems。
We even need an event-based payment network — so that the benefits of incident contracts can be used directly for consumption。
It's the biggest waste of "incident assets" just to give the user a "buy up and fall."。
So let me get this straight。
Today's forecast market, we have no missing trading terminals. We have countless trading terminals, each of which is more fancy than the last。
We're not missing a terminal。
What we're missing is an incident bank。
An infrastructure that provides a full range of financial services around "incident assets". From pricing to transactions, from borrowing to settlement, from wind control to asset management. Not a function, but a whole system。
Just like you wouldn't call Morgan Chase a stock exchange app -- a complete financial system built around stocks, bonds, derivatives。
Incident assets need to belong to Morgan Chase itself。
That's what I see. The city at the end of the wilderness。
Do not make the 101st trading terminal
Consensus Hong Kong the other day, I talked to over a hundred people about the forecast market。
Investors, builders, traders, the media, researchers — all the roles you can think of, I've talked about it。
Finally, I have good news and bad news。
The good news is, the heat is back. Everyone's talking about predicting markets. After the Polymarket election, the whole industry suddenly realized that the track was real. Inflow of funds, team formation, narrative warming。
The bad news is that imagination is dead。
I've heard the same word over and over in those 100 conversations -- "better trading experience." Faster bets, better UI, more smooth K-line panel, more social Copy Trading。
Ninety-nine percent of the people are still staring at building a better casino。
No one is talking about event assets. Nobody's talking about pricing models. Nobody talks about financial infrastructure. Nobody's talking about that final。
All of us are using tactical diligence to mask strategic laziness。
When I came back from Hong Kong, my mood was contradictory. On the one hand, the heat of the market validates our direction. On the other hand, the whole industry's imagination of predictive markets is stuck at a low level that almost suffocates me。
If the end of the forecast is just a lottery, then we can leave now。
But we know it's not。
So we made a decision。
A decision that might seem crazy to outsiders。
we tore up @insidersdotbot's original road map。
It's not fine-tuning. It's not an iterative. It's a reverse。
Because after more than a hundred conversations, we finally saw one thing
The world does not need the 101st projected market trading terminal。
There's no shortage of Social Trading. Not missing Copy Trading. No shortage of professional K-line panels. No missing better look UI。
These are just tools. The tool solves the question of how to buy。
But nobody's solving the "why buy" problem。
No one is answering that fundamental question — how to make an ordinary person who has never been in contact with the forecast market understand why an "incident" is worth trading and understand what it has to do with his life。
It's not a functional iterative solution. This is a product-form problem。
What we need is not a better trading terminal。
What we need is an incident bank, a “everything App”。
A super-appliance that allows ordinary people to gain advantage over uncertainty. A tool that makes everyone an insider in their own lives。
That's what the name Insiders means -- not the "Insider" who deals in the inside, but the "person who has the information advantage of his life."。
Do you know why people on Wall Street always move ahead of you? Not because they're smarter, but because they have better tools to sense what's going to happen. They have Bloomberg Terminal, research by Prime Brokerage, and dinner with Fed officials。
And what do you have? You have a news app to send notice that something has happened。
What the Insiders do is take the privilege of "know first" from Wall Street and hand it to everyone。
And the only way to carry this ambition is by incident banks. Because only incident banks can carry the weight of event assets. Only when product patterns evolve to this point can event assets truly be embedded in the blood vessels of the financial world, rather than staying in the corner of a small casino forever。
In this vision, we have given ourselves two seemingly impossible tasks。
First, fill the abyss of infrastructure。
The Hard Tech。
Now the forecast market, the threshold is so high. You need a wallet, you need to understand Gas, you need a chain of understanding that interacts and you need to endure the mobility that breaks between different platforms. These frictions, each of which is blocking 99% of potential users。
All we have to do is make it all disappear。
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Unsure deal- Connecting to multiple-chain wallets, Gas-free silk slide experience. Users don't need to know what ETH, what Gas, what Slippage is. He clicked "buy in," and it happened. Just like you don't have to understand the inter-bank clearing system when you pay on Twitter。
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Market effectiveness— ELIMINATE THE DISPROPORTIONATE PRICE DIFFERENTIALS THROUGH AI-AIDED PRICING AND CROSS-PLATFORM ARBITRAGE MECHANISMS SO THAT THE SAME EVENT HAS CONSISTENT PRICING ACROSS THE MARKET. THE ISSUE OF FRAGMENTATION OF MOBILITY MUST BE ADDRESSED AT THE PRODUCT LEVEL。
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Financial depth— Primary integrated lending, leverage and structured products, so that capital efficiency is no longer locked away by a 1:1 bond. A market that can only be fully charged will never attract real institutional funds。
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BOTTOM API AND SDK— PROVIDE INTERFACES FOR THE ENTIRE ECOLOGY. WE'RE NOT JUST BUILDING A PRODUCT, WE'RE BUILDING A PLATFORM. LET OTHER DEVELOPERS BUILD THEIR OWN APPLICATIONS OVER EVENT ASSETS, JUST LIKE COUNTLESS COMPANIES BUILD THEIR OWN SERVICES OVER AWS。
Secondly, to rebuild a new generation of consensus。
The South Power。
The prediction of the market should not be Web3's high. If it can only flow in the circle of the crypto indigenous people, it will never be the "financial infrastructure" we described。
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French money- DIRECTLY USING FRENCH CURRENCY, COMPLETELY ELIMINATING "YOU HAVE TO BUY USDC" AS A STEP TO DISCOURAGE 90% OF USERS。
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Area integration— Forecasting markets must connect news, socialize, connect your daily lives. It's not supposed to be an App you need to open alone, it's supposed to be the layer of information you naturally embed in reading news. And when you see the news about the Fed's possible interest rate drop in June, there's a real-time probability distribution next to it, and you can be a part of it。
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Override All— Cell phones, computers, Telegram, Discord, and even future clothing. Everywhere, seamlessly synchronized. You saw an event on your cell phone with different odds, a key to your computer, a settlement notice on your watch。
This is not a functional list. This is our systematic answer to "how events assets go into everyday life."。
Finally, let me talk about the pattern of the end。
There are only three types of players left in the forecasted market tracks of the future。
Category I: Pure trading terminals. Whether it's a simple or a professional version, they provide the answer to "where to buy." They will survive, but the ceiling is limited, as their value depends entirely on the depth of bottom mobility。
Category II: arms dealers at the bottom. Provide SDK and API, do Infra. They are the ecological supply chain for event assets, but important but not directly to end users。
Category III: definition of lifestyle. The event that really established the essence of "event is asset". It's not just for you to trade events, but for them to be part of your life, as natural as breathing。
Why am I sure it's still Blue Sea
Because the consensus on "event asset" has not yet been established — that means the biggest cognitive arbitrage window has not yet been closed. Because the real Mass Adoption product has not yet been born -- that means that the opportunity to define a class still exists. Because the whole industry's imagination is still on "better casinos" -- This means that when the first "incident bank" appears, it will receive disproportionate attention and resources。
The forecast market is the last missing piece of the modern financial valuation puzzle。
The financial logic of the next decade has been defined by those who have completed this section。
2026 is the year of prevention.
It's not a slogan. It's happening。
I didn't write this article to convince you. Convince is the strategy of the weak。
I wrote this for the record. Before predicting that the market would be accepted by the world, a group of people had already seen the end and decided to build it。
What we have to do is not make the world a casino. It is the right of everyone to anticipate change, to confront fate。
The world is a huge forecast market。
Every day, every decision, you bet. The difference is just-- are you blind, or is it clear。
We exist to make you play cards。
End: Fire
Every revolution, before it was recognized, was just a man's long night reading table。
More than 40 years ago, Robin Hanson (@robinhanson) wrote in his academic paper an idea that puzzled his peers: If we let people bet on the future with real money and silver, is the probability more accurate than any expert forecast
There was no block chain, no DeFi, no infrastructure to carry the idea. Not even enough people understand the question。
But he wrote it down。
He was the first person to say, "We need a brand-new pricing dimension" throughout the academic world. He didn't wait for the world to be ready. He just buried it in the ground and believed that one day someone would light it。
Earlier, when the story was almost forgotten, Robert Forsythe, Forrest Nelson and George Neumann did something that seemed to have no commercial value at the University of Iowa campus。
They built Iowa Electronic Markets. An experimental market where results are traded in real currency. There is no financing, there is no user growth target, and no one thinks it's a business。
It is only an experiment by three scholars of one belief: the judgement of a group can be priced。
That experiment was the first seed in the real world to predict markets. Today, the blood of every prognosis market platform in the world carries the genes of that afternoon at the Iowa campus。
Then there was a long silence。
Almost thirty years. The forecast market is cited in academic papers, discussed in the forum of extremists and ignored in the mainstream world。
Until the time began to accelerate。
2020. Crypto's wilderness. Regulated grey areas. All the decent people are far away。
Shayne Coplan (@shayne coplan) created Polymarket in this unsuspecting wilderness。
There is no precedent to follow. There is no mature path to compliance. There is no guarantee that the matter will not be stopped by the authorities one day。
But he's not betting on the success of the project -- he's betting on the "incident pricing" itself。
It turns out he's right. Polymarket's performance in the United States election in 2024 made the world realize for the first time — predicting the probabilities offered by the market — is closer to reality than all opinion agencies, all political analysts, all traditional media。
In that moment, the forecast market went from being a money ring to a global information infrastructure. And the starting point for all this is that a young man chooses to believe when everyone does not like it。
In almost the same period, the fighting on the other road was equally tragic. In 2021, Tarek Mansour (@mansourtarek ) and Luana Lopes Lara (@luanalopeslara) created Kalshi - not in the grey area of Crypto, but in the heart of the United States' most stringent regulatory system。
THEY CHOSE A PATH THAT HARDLY ANYONE DARED TO FOLLOW: TO CONFRONT CFTC FACE-TO-FACE, TO GET COMPLIANCE PLATES AND TO MAKE THE INCIDENT CONTRACT A RECOGNIZED FINANCIAL PRODUCT IN THE LEGAL SENSE。
It's not "Move fast and break things". It's "Move slow and built legitimacy"。
Every hearing, every legal document, every saw with regulation, is seeking one thing for the whole forecast market industry — legitimacy. Not for the legitimacy of a company in Kalshi, but for the very legitimacy of the proposition that an event can be priced, traded。
And they cut a stitch in the wall of iron. And that stitch, it lets the sun shine into the industry。
It took me a long time to think about a question — what are these people in common
Not resources. Not background. Not luck。
It was when no one believed them that they chose to。
Robin Hanson believes that group wisdom can be priced when the academic community feels he's talking in his sleep. Iowa's three scholars believe that a campus experiment can change perceptions without any commercial returns. Shayne believes that the event pricing is unstoppable at a time when regulation is likely to press the termination key. Tarek and Luana believe that the road to compliance will end when everyone says "CFTC won't approve"。
Every one of them was once regarded as heresy。
They're not on a single round of financing. They are on their own time, their reputation, their career and a belief that seems naive — a world that needs a more honest way of pricing。
Today, market turnover is forecast to exceed $10 billion a year. The probability of events begins to influence global media narratives and institutional decisions. For the first time, the concept of "incidental assets" was seriously included in the study and investment memorandum。
Looking back, the fire never went out. It's just waiting for enough oxygen。
And these are the people who, in the age of oxygen-depleting, survive with their own breath。
I did not write this article to declare victory — the revolution is far from over. The front is still a wasteland and four hills are still standing。
I wrote this article to document a long relay from academic papers to school experiments, from encrypted wilderness to regulatory walls, from "no one believes" to "no one can ignore"。
What we do today — moving “events or assets” from forecast markets to stocks, bonds, real estate, corporate valuations and life decisions for every ordinary person — is not from scratch。
We're the ones who took the torch。
Four hundred years of financial puzzle, the last missing piece, has finally been filled. It is not a person who has made up for it, but a generation after a generation of people who have not understood it, who have taken the best of their lives, and have been cut out by little。
To Robin Hanson, to the pioneers of Iowa, to Shayne, to Tarek and Luana, to all those who fought on this road and are still fighting..
You light more than just a market。
You rewrite it as a way for humanity to live with uncertainty。
God's still throwing dice。
But because of you, for the first time we saw the direction of the dice falling。
And our generation's mission is to turn "see" into "hold."。
History will remember this page。
Not because of an individual's name, but because — at a time when everyone is accustomed to blinding in darkness — a group of people chose to light the light。
This time, we don't do bystanders。
We're the dice man。
