ETH: Vitalik knows how to run, and Tom Lee is still obsessed

Source:Cooper Research

Compiled by Azuma, Odaily Daily Planet

Editor: On March 6, Wall Street's empty agency Cooper Research suddenly announced that it was making empty securities like ETH and BMNR. The logic of Culper Research is that developers like Vitalik miscalculate the elasticity of the demand for the Taipei before they upgrade to Fusaka, leading to the upgrading of the ETH currency economic model. Culper Research also mentioned that Vitalik was well aware of this and was running with real action, while Tom Lee, who was not aware of it, would be desperate。

Vitalik himself and Tom Lee have not responded, but Vitalik's father Dmitry Buterin (dima.eth) has responded: “You don't have to look down when you see the phrase `Vitalik knows this and is selling'. They're clowns who want attention, not researchers."

The following is the original Culper Research, compiled by the Daily Daily Planet, Odaily. The compilation of this text does not mean that we share the idea of Culper Research, but is simply an expression of the perception of ETH and incitement to the market in the perspective of some Wall Street institutions。

The latest disclosure is that we are making empty ETH and related shares, including Bitmine (BMNR)。

We believe that the ETH currency economic model has been destroyed after the Fusaka upgrade in December 2025. Vitalik knows it's being sold, and ETH's most determined, many head Tom Lee is constantly adding useless inputs. ETH will continue to fall。

Tom Lee's Bitmine has been defending ETH, claiming that “because of its increased usefulness, ETH is not caught in the death spiral”. He cited the surge in the number of active addresses and transactions in the Taifung after the upgrade of Fusaka as evidence of the so-called “basic improvements” and the use of institutions, but he was completely mistaken。

According to Tom Lee's own logic, ETH is indeed in the spiral of death if it does not reflect real growth in use and basic improvements。

And our research shows that this is what is happening。

A comprehensive analysis of the chain data from January 2025 to February 2026 shows that Lee's so-called “institutional adoption has led to an increase in the activity of the Taifung,” can actually be explained by a large number of low-value addresses for poisoning (advice poisoning) and dust attacks. These acts were caused by the excess space of the Fusaka upgrade。

Fusaka upgrade:

• 95% of the new wallets grew from newly created dust addresses
• The number of poisoning attacks has increased more than threefold
• The poisoning explained the growth of the Etherwood trade, which is more than 50%
• The drug trade now accounts for 22.5 per cent of all ETA transactions

Fusaka upgrades the gas limit from 45M to 60M, with the aim of expanding the capacity of the Layer1 Ether. Vitalik and the protocol team had previously projected a 10-30 per cent decrease in gas costs, but the reality was that gas costs had fallen by about 90 per cent。

Vitalik and the certifier suffered serious miscalculation in the calculation of Layer's demand elasticity. They use outdated mathematical models (based on assumptions made before EIP-1559 and before Layer2), thereby overestimating Layer1's needs by three to nine times. That's why we think Vitalik is selling ETH in large quantities. On 30 January, Vitalik announced in advance that he would sell 16,384 ETH to finance the Ethermanian Foundation's “austerity period”, but since then he has sold more than 19300 ETH and continues to sell。

Vitalik understands the point that Tom Lee does not understand - that the ETH's token economic model has been destroyed。

We've personally recorded the poisoning of the Taifung web site. We created two new addresses and transferred between them. In five minutes, we were hit with an address. We encourage readers to test this for themselves. At present, the rate of damage caused by the poisoning attack is more than eight times higher than before the escalation of Fusaka。

in addition, the promotion of gas limit also hit the group of validators, who now receive a 40 per cent-50 per cent drop in their tips per unit. declining rates of return will further weaken institutional adoption by weakening pledge demand and high-value transactions. the wheel has now begun to operate in reverse。

At the same time, the Ether factory continues to lose market share, flowing to Solana and its own Layer2 network。

• The number of Solana developers increased by 29% in 2025
• The increase in the number of developing people in the Taipei is only 6%
• Humans are leaving Ether's ecology
• Solana was selected by institutions like Visa and Citigroup for the DeFi application
• Solana DEX has traded more than twice as much。

During the Internet bubble era, Netscape and Nokia had ruled the market for more than 10 years, but it was Google and Apple that had actually reaped. We think the situation is similar to that of the Taifeng -- we think that the currency economic model of the Taifung has collapsed, that Tom Lee has been trapped in his position, and that the price of ETH will continue to fall。