A sting or a chance? The encryption market enters a “re-pricing moment”: macro logic behind the downturn, structural transformation and the future Points
Since 2026, the overall performance of the encrypted market has been under pressure, with Bitcoin reciprocating with mainstream assets, and market sentiment has been significantly cooled. Behind this phase of depression, is the end of the cycle or the prelude to a restructuring
FIRE COIN HTX RECENTLY RELEASEDWhite paper on digital asset trendsIt states that digital assets are completing the historical establishment of their asset classes and that the market-driven logic has shifted from a “price cycle” to a “structural trend”. This judgement provides a key framework of interpretation for the current market — behind short-term fluctuations, a deep reshaping of macroeconomic liquidity, institutional participation, regulatory evolution and technological infrastructure upgrading。
THE WHITE PAPER FURTHER DETERMINED THAT THE CORE ISSUE IN 2026 WAS NO LONGER “THE VALUE OF DIGITAL ASSETS”, BUT “THE PROPORTION OF GLOBAL ASSET ALLOCATION”. CORE ASSETS, SUCH AS BITCOIN, ARE GRADUALLY EMBEDDING IN THE TRADITIONAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM, FORMING NEW CONFIGURATIONS WITH ASSETS SUCH AS UNITED STATES BONDS, GOLD, ETC.; AT THE SAME TIME, THE RISE OF MONEY-STABILIZING, RWA AND CHAIN-REVENGING ASSETS IS RESHAPING THE WAY FUNDS FLOW WITHIN THE ENCRYPTION SYSTEM。
AGAINST THIS BACKGROUND, THE CURRENT MARKET “LOWNESS” IS ESSENTIALLY A TIME-LAPSE IN THE TRANSITION FROM A PERIOD OF HIGH VOLATILITY TO A MATURE FINANCIAL SYSTEM. BASED ON MACRO-ENVIRONMENT, INSTITUTIONAL BEHAVIOUR, MARKET STRUCTURE AND INDUSTRY TRENDS, THE PAPER PROVIDES A SYSTEMATIC COMBO OF THE CURRENT DOWNSWING IN THE ENCRYPTION MARKET AND A FORWARD-LOOKING ANALYSIS OF POTENTIAL FUTURE POINTS OF ENTRY AND LONG-TERM TRENDS, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE PERSPECTIVE OF THE FIRE-MONEY HTX STUDY, WITH A VIEW TO PROVIDING MARKET PARTICIPANTS WITH MORE FRAMEWORK DIAGNOSTICS。
I. Current market situation
Analysis of the core causes of market downturns
1. Macroeconomic pressures (most driving forces)
The Tramp Customs War has been the biggest external shock since 2025
• The United States tariff on China rose to 100 per cent in October 2025 and retaliatory duty on multiple countries launched Liberation Day
• CUSTOMS BULLETINS – GLOBAL STOCK MARKET SALES – – AGENCIES REDUCE BTC ETF – AND THE DOLLAR GOES STRONG – – – UP THE NATIONAL DEBT RATE, – – – – – – – – LEVERAGE, – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – AND – – – – – – – – – – – AND – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – AND – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
• DURING THE CUSTOMS WAR, GOLD WAS AT A RECORD HIGH, WHILE THE BTC COLLAPSED AND COMPLETELY BROKE THE NARRATIVE OF "DIGITAL GOLD"
• THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND REVISED DOWNWARDS GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH EXPECTATIONS FOR 2026 OVER THE SAME PERIOD, WITH RECESSIONS EXPECTED TO CONTAIN RISK BIAS OKAY
The Fed's policy continues to favour eagles
• Traditional savings are more attractive in high-interest-rate environments and "hot money" no longer flows into encryption
• The Federal Reserve's expected interest rate reduction has been postponed repeatedly and the liquidity window has not yet been opened
2. AGENCY ETF DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD EFFECT
ETF ALLOWS TRADITIONAL INSTITUTIONS TO SELL BITCOIN AT ANY TIME LIKE STOCK. INSTITUTIONALIZATION MEANS A MORE EFFICIENT BUYOUT AND A MORE EFFICIENT SELLOUT. WHEN MACRO-PRESSURES COME IN, THE RISK MANAGEMENT MODEL OF PENSION FUNDS AND RIA WILL AUTOMATICALLY SLOW DOWN AND ACCELERATE SALES。
3. Controversy over the failure of the half-cycle
Look at the empty:The BTC is projected to have a new low probability of up to 75 per cent by October 2026; the Pi-Cycle Top indicator does not have cross signals, and the high point in October 2025 may be only a local peak。
Look at Tom Lee:The delayed effect of the liquidity trend after halving has not yet materialized; the structural holding of the Agency will erupt in the second half of the year as the Federal Reserve moves; and the target price is $200,000。
4. The structural collapse of the market for Yamamoto currency
• A large number of tokens issued in 2024-2025 have been left unconnected
• Discrepancies continue to be suppressed by the FTX, Luna, etc
• The AI+Meme narrative wheel is moving too fast and users are tired
• Tiger Research judgement: projects that do not generate sustainable income will exit in bulk
5. Geopolitics and the risk of war
• Continued tension in the Middle East (interim ceasefire between the United States and Iraq, continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Israeli-Israeli conflict, Lebanese-Israeli conflict)
• The United States-Israel-Iran tripartite tension has led to the continued suppression of risky assets
• FOLLOWING THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF THE IRANIAN CEASEFIRE ON 8 APRIL 2026, TRUMP 4.17 DECLARED THAT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ HAD BEEN OPENED FOR ONE TIME AND THAT THE BTC HAD REBOUNDED TO 78,000 ON A SINGLE DAY, DEMONSTRATING THAT GEO-FEAR WAS AN IMPORTANT DETERRENT FACTOR
III. Institutional/analyst core judgement
Look at the pie
Look empty
Neutral/structural perspective
IV. Stable currency: bright spots in the low
Conclusion: The funds did not leave encryption in the customs panic, but instead moved to stabilize currency avoidance — indicating that trust in encryption infrastructure was increasing, but that market tolerance for volatile assets was declining。
V. Reveal catalysts (when to end the fall)
VI. FLAMING CURRENCY HTX PERSPECTIVE
6.1 Core judgement of market downturns
ACCORDING TO HTX, THE CURRENT DOWNTURN IS NOT THE END, BUT THE PAIN OF A STRUCTURAL TRANSITION。
"Digital assets are gradually completing the transition from "price cycle driven" to "structural trend driven". Factors such as macro-liquidity, regulatory frameworks, institutional participation and technological advances are becoming central variables in determining the long-term pattern of industry. Short-term price volatility will remain, but what really affects industry movement is asset class status-setting, improvements in infrastructure capacity and the reshaping of global capital structures
6.2 Structural interpretation of the causes of depression
A. REBALANCING LIQUIDITY IS FUNDAMENTAL
• The Fed's repeated trade-offs between the fall in inflation and the resilience of employment, with interest rate reductions Shake Huh
• Europe's weak growth dynamics, Japan's interest rate normalization advances and global arbitrage structure Fan. Change
• DIGITAL ASSETS ARE DEEPLY EMBEDDED IN THE GLOBAL LIQUIDITY FRAMEWORK AND PRICING LOGIC IS ALIGNED TO TRADITIONAL MACRO ASSETS — THAT'S WHY THE BTC IS SO HIGHLY CONNECTED TO THE BDP
B. INSTITUTIONALIZATION IS A MATURE PROCESS AND NOT A SOURCE OF RISK
"The greater concern of the 2026 market is no longer the "value of digital assets", but the "share of asset allocation". This shift marks the beginning of a mature industry
Increased short-term volatility resulting from higher institutional ratios is an essential stage in the industry's maturity - – Increased institutional silo ratios will change the market structure, increase the share of long-term finance and decrease the overall volatility。
C. STABLE CURRENCY REVERSALS VALIDATE THE VALUE OF INFRASTRUCTURE
"Stable currency is becoming a "link-printer" of the dollar system, and its liquidity changes will be an important precursor to market risk preferences and financial flows."
The current stabilization currency of over $300 billion, with monthly transactions exceeding the banking network of the United States, is evidence of the enduring trust in encryption infrastructure。
6.3 FIRE CURRENCY HTX 2026 STRATEGIC KEY WORD
6.4 FLAMING CURRENCY HTX FIVE TREND CORE PROGNOSIS
TRENDS I: BTC DIGITAL GOLD POSITIONING SOLIDIFIED
THE BTC WILL EXIST AS A STRUCTURALLY CONFIGURED ASSET, TEND TO BECOME LESS VOLATILE, WITH A GROWING SHARE OF LONG-TERM HOLDERS AND A FURTHER SHIFT OF MARKET PRICING POWER TO MEDIUM- AND LONG-TERM CAPITAL。
TRENDS II: ETH BECOMES THE CORE CARRIER OF INCOME ASSETS
The pledge + the DeFi agreement revenue-driven ETH is close to the "growth income asset" in the institutional portfolio and is a vehicle for capturing the core values of the chain of economic activity。
Trends III: Stable currency size continues to be high
It will expand from a trading medium to cross-border payments and chain settlements, becoming the third largest channel of global dollar flows (after the market for bank deposits and the market for United States bonds)。
Trend four: AI Agent becomes the lead in the next round of narratives
Automation of the chain will be the focus of a new round of technology competition. Fire currency HTX has taken the lead in the layout of AI Skills and AI interfaces and is one of the leading mainstream CEXs for the integration of AI and exchange capacity。
TREND FIVE: STEADY TRACK IN RWA LOW
REAL ASSET MONETIZATION HAS ENTERED AN ACCELERATED PHASE, WITH RWA ON A SCALE OF OVER $1 TRILLION BY 2030, A CRITICAL BRIDGE BETWEEN THE ENCRYPTED MARKET AND TRADITIONAL FINANCE。
VII. The White Paper perspective: validation and complementarity of long-term trends
In additionWhite paper on digital asset trendsThis analysis is an important complement and validation. The White Paper, in chapter VIII, “Key judgement for the next decade”, provides a more forward-looking systemic perspective on the structural changes in current markets。
With regard to the stabilization currency, the White Paper makes it clear that "the stabilization currency is profoundly changing the structure of the global payment and financial system" and prejudges that "if the stabilization currency continues its current trend, its market size is expected to reach trillions of dollars in the next decade, and could be the third largest dollar-flow channel after the United States bank deposit market and the United States Treasury debt market."。
This judgement is highly consistent with the analysis in chapter IV of the present report, "Stabilized currency: bright spots in the lowness" — the current transfer of funds to stable currency is not simply risk-averse, but reflects a deeper recognition of the encryption market infrastructure function. As market participants (including institutions) increasingly use stabilization currency as a medium for value storage and trading rather than as a short-term risk-averse tool, the stabilization currency is actually completing the leap from the "subsidiary of encrypted markets" to the "third pole of global dollar flows"。
WITH REGARD TO THE UNDERLYING LOGIC OF INSTITUTIONAL ENGAGEMENT, THE WHITE PAPER CONSIDERS THAT "THE INCREASE IN SHORT-TERM VOLATILITY RESULTING FROM THE INCREASE IN INSTITUTIONAL REPRESENTATION IS AN ESSENTIAL STAGE IN THE INDUSTRY'S MATURITY - – AN INCREASE IN THE PERCENTAGE OF INSTITUTIONAL SILOS WOULD CHANGE THE MARKET STRUCTURE, INCREASE THE SHARE OF LONG-TERM FINANCE AND DECREASE THE LEVEL OF OVERALL VOLATILITY”. THIS JUDGEMENT PROVIDES A MORE MACRO PERSPECTIVE FOR UNDERSTANDING THE CURRENT ETF DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD EFFECT: THE SHORT-TERM PUSH FROM INSTITUTIONALIZATION IS ESSENTIALLY AN EXTENSION OF THE RISK MANAGEMENT LOGIC OF TRADITIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS IN THE ENCRYPTED WORLD, WITH THE RESULT OF ACCELERATING THE EMERGENCE OF INDUSTRIAL BUBBLES RATHER THAN CHANGING THE LONG-TERM DIRECTION OF THE INDUSTRY。
With regard to trends over the next decade, the White Paper suggests that "the combination of AI and the block chain may become one of the most important technological trends for the next decade", and predicts that "with the increasing number of AI Agents, they may gradually become important players in the chain economy and, in some scenarios, major players in transactions". This means that the current rapid rotation of the AI+Meme narrative may be only the initial phase of AI’s integration with Cripto; as AI Agent’s autonomy along the chain increases, the main structure of the chain economy will change fundamentally, at which time the “dealer” may no longer be just a human investor。
With regard to the long-term direction of markets, the central judgement of the White Paper is that "the development of digital assets is in fact a process from technological experiments to the restructuring of the financial system. Over the past decade, block-chain technology has completed infrastructure development; and over the next decade, digital assets may evolve from an emerging asset class into an important component of the global financial system. In conjunction with this report's analysis of the current low period, this judgement means that the current market adjustment is both a painful process of industrial de-foaming and an essential stage in the transition of digital assets from "high volatility of innovative assets" to "climate financial infrastructure". The short-term price downturn has never negated long-term structural trends – the White Paper describes “a more open, efficient and globalized chain of financial networks” – and perhaps after this low period, the industry will arrive on the other side。
Source: BlockEden, Old Danny, Tiger Research, Messari, Delphi Digital, a16z, Coinbase Research, BeInCrypto, CoinTelegraph, Fire currency HTX White Paper on Trends in Digital Assets 2026
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