By Wang Tai, editor: Wang Tai

1. Bitcoin market

Bitcoin price trends (2025/11/29-2025/12/05)

 

AT THIS STAGE, THE OVERALL MOVEMENT OF BITCOIN IS REFLECTED IN "SMALL PACKING, SCRAMBLING, SCRAMBLING, SCRAMBLING, SCRAMBLING V, SCRAMBLING, SCRAMBLING." THE PRICE RUNS BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY $84,286 – $94,010, WITH FLUCTUATIONS AMOUNTING TO ALMOST US$ 10,000, WITH A SHARP BULGE. THERE WAS A MARKED DEEP DECLINE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 DECEMBER, FOLLOWED BY A STRONG REBOUND, THREE DAYS LATER THE MARKET RECOVERED UPWARDS AND PRICES GRADUALLY STABILIZED ABOVE $92,000。

Narrow consolidation phase (29 November-30 November)

Bitcoin, after several days of repair, showed a low-floating concussion pattern between 29 and 30 days, mainly running between $90,000 and $91,500, with a more cautious trading mood。

On 29 November, a small upswing to the vicinity of $91,500 was blocked and the tailings dropped slightly

30 November: Maintaining a vulnerable shock around $90,800, with a strong market viewing atmosphere。

Reasons for movement:

• (b) Entering the technical consolidation phase of the market after consecutive retrenchments
• Prior to the release of key macrodata, both sides were conservative
• There has been a marked contraction in turnover and insufficient willingness to channel funds。

Sudden dive phase (1 December-2 December morning)

In the evening of 1 to 2 December, Bitcoin experienced a rapid fall in the cliff, falling short from over $90,000 to a minimum of $84,286, a new phase of lowness with short-line empty moods, with prices almost flattened directly at $86,000; and a large number of leveraged multiple-head positions were flattened, creating a chain-based bursting effect, a sharp increase in fluctuations in the day and a massive outburst of panic。

Reasons for movement:

• (b) Technology patterns are not effective enough to break the pre-high and reverse failure triggers empty-headed dominance
• The leverage is over-centralized at $89,000 and becomes the push-off trigger。

TYPE V REBOUND PHASE (2 DECEMBER, AFTERNOON - 3 DECEMBER)

AFTER FALLING AT $85,000, THE MARKET SURGED QUICKLY, MOVING OUT OF THE TYPICAL “V-TYPE REVERSE” MOVEMENT, AND BY THE NIGHT OF 3 DECEMBER IT HAD SUCCEEDED IN RETURNING TO THE $91,500 – $92,000 ZONE. ON THE AFTERNOON OF 2 DECEMBER, PRICES ROSE RAPIDLY FROM $84,000 TO $89,000 IN THE REGION; THE REBOUND CONTINUED ON 3 DECEMBER, WITH A SHOCK OF $93,000 AND A MARKED RECOVERY IN MARKET SENTIMENT。

At the beginning of the week, options were bought into the market to see them fall, reflecting fears of a recurrence of the August 2024 price trend, related to the possibility that the Japanese arbitrage deal might be cleared. As a result of the experience of this risk, the market has already anticipated the extent to which the epidemic may spread, as well as the type of recovery that would normally result. After price stabilization, the movement rapidly shifted: the rebound led to a decisive shift towards increased options and almost perfect reversal of the pattern of stress periods。

Reasons for movement:

• The short-term technical rebound needs are released after serious overselling
• ETF EXPECTS TO WORK WITH MACRO-POLICY STABILIZATION SIGNALS TO EASE MARKET PANIC。

High-level shock phase (4 December-5 December)

After a successful price stabilization, the price moved to a high-level inter-temporal shock, operating between $91,500 per $94,010, with several attempts to break the pre-pre-excess, but maintaining a strong structure as a whole. On 4 December, the rush to the peak of phase $94,010 was not sustained by short-line profit drives; on 5 December, a small round-up was made, with a minimum of $91,800 and a further rebound, at a cost of $92,590 at the time of writing。

Reasons for movement:

• (b) Decline in upper offensive power and significant technical resistance
• (b) Multi-space access to the game, rapid access to short-line funds and increased shocks

THE MARKET AWAITS THE NEXT ROUND OF CLEAR DIRECTIONAL SIGNALS, SUCH AS THE FEDERAL RESERVE ' S INTEREST RATE GUIDELINES, PROGRESS ON THE ETF POLICY, ETC。

 

Market dynamics and macro background

Financial flows

1. ETF FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS

THIS WEEK BITCOIN ETF FLOWS TO:

• 28 November: +71.4 million
• December 01: +0.08.5 billion
• December 02: +$58.5 million
• 03 December: - $14.9 million
• December 04: - $81.6 million

PHOTO OF ETF INFLOW/OUTFLOW DATA

OVERALL, ETF FUNDS FOR THE CURRENT CYCLE ARE IN A PATTERN OF “SMALL RETURN FLOWS, SMALLER OUTFLOWS” AND THE FINANCIAL STRUCTURE IS NOT YET STABLE, BUT SMALL VOLUMES ARE TILTING IN THE DIRECTION. THE THREE-DAY SHORT NET INFLOW FROM 28 NOVEMBER TO 2 DECEMBER, WITH CAPITAL DYNAMISM FLOWING INTO BITCOIN REMAINING SLIGHTLY POSITIVE, HELPED TO EXPLAIN THE SUPPORT OF REAL MARKET VALUES AND THE SUBSEQUENT RECOVERY TO MORE THAN $90,000. THIS CAPITAL DYNAMISM CAN BE MEASURED BY A NET CHANGE IN MARKET VALUE, CURRENTLY AT +86.9 BILLION PER MONTH, WELL BELOW THE MONTHLY PEAK OF $64.3 BILLION IN JULY 2025. BUT IT REMAINS POSITIVE. AS LONG AS CAPITAL KINETIC ENERGY REMAINS ABOVE ZERO, REAL MARKET AVERAGES CAN CONTINUE TO BE THE STARTING POINT FOR WHOLE AREAS AND POTENTIAL BOTTOM FORMATIONS RATHER THAN DEEPER COLLAPSES. THE SHOCK IN THE CURRENT CYCLE OF ETF FLOWS REFLECTS THE FACT THAT INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS REMAIN CAUTIOUS ABOUT THE DEPLOYMENT OF BITCOIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CURRENT VOLATILITY AND MACRO-RISKS, WITH A CLEAR “WATCH-AND-SEE” SITUATION。

 

2. SLOWING DEMAND FOR BITCOIN ETF

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NET MOVEMENT OF BITCOIN ETF IN THE UNITED STATES DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH THE AVERAGE OF 3 NOVEMBER FALLING FIRMLY INTO NEGATIVE COMPARTMENTS. THIS REPRESENTS A CLEAR REVERSAL OF THE MECHANISM OF SUSTAINED INFLOW THAT UNDERPINNED PRICES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR, REFLECTING THE COOLING OF NEW CAPITAL ALLOCATION. THE WIDESPREAD OUTFLOW OF FUNDS BY ISSUERS INDICATES A MORE CAUTIOUS ATTITUDE ON THE PART OF INSTITUTIONAL PARTICIPANTS IN THE FACE OF WEAKER MARKET CONDITIONS. THE SPOT MARKET FACES A CONTEXT OF WEAKENING DEMAND, WHICH WEAKENS THE BUYER ' S DIRECT SUPPORT AND MAKES PRICES MORE SENSITIVE TO EXTERNAL SHOCKS AND MACROECONOMIC VOLATILITY。

 

3. THE SPOT BITCOIN ETF FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER WAS $3.5 BILLION, THE LARGEST MONTHLY OUTFLOW SINCE FEBRUARY

According to SoSoValue data, US real bitcoin ETF recorded a net outflow of $3.5 billion in November, the largest monthly negative flow recorded since this year. Since 31 October, there have been four consecutive weeks of net outflows from Bitcoin ETF, totalling $4.34 billion. However, before Thanksgiving in the United States, the last three days of November turned into net inflows。

Of these, the BlackRock IBIT, the largest Bitcoin ETF net asset, was released in November by $2.34 billion and recorded the largest single-day outflow since its inception on 18 November, amounting to $523 million. According to LVRG Director General Nick Ruck, the outflow was mainly a reflection of the winding-up of the agency after Bitcoin’s record and the year-end portfolio adjustment, not a loss of confidence. In addition, U.S. F. ETF net outflows of $1.42 billion in November, the largest monthly outflow in history. New spot ETFs such as Solana, XRP and others were introduced during the same period, with an ongoing net inflow of $666 million from the XRP ETF. Grayscale plans to launch the first United States spot this week, Chainlink ETF, to further expand the encryption product。

 

4. Going down the chain of trading activities

the fourth-quarter digital asset report issued by Glassnode shows that the new capital in the cycle was $732.0 billion in bitcoin,1 real annual fluctuations were nearly halved, market transactions were more peaceful, larger in scale and institutional participation. Over the past 90 days, bitcoin settlements have been about $6.9 trillion, equal or higher to Visa and MasterCards。

AS MONEY FLOWS TO ETFS AND BROKERS, TRANSACTIONS ARE MOVING DOWNWARDS, BUT BITCOIN AND STABILIZERS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CHAIN. THE SIZE OF THE MONETIZATION RWA GREW FROM $7 BILLION TO $24 BILLION IN ONE YEAR, THE STRONGEST INSTITUTIONAL ADOPTION TO DATE. DERIVATIVE FUNDS WERE ONE OF THE FASTEST GROWING AREAS IN 2025, PROVIDING NEW DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS FOR ASSET MANAGEMENT COMPANIES AND INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR PREVIOUSLY UNDERSERVED INVESTORS。

 

5. Decline in long-term holders ' profitability

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MAINTAINING POSITIVE CAPITAL INFLOWS MEANS THAT NEW DEMAND CAN STILL ABSORB THE PROFITS OF LONG-TERM INVESTORS. THE RATIO OF SPOT PRICES TO THE ACTIVE CONSUMPTION COST BASE OF LONG-TERM HOLDERS, MEASURED BY LONG-TERM HOLDERS SOPR (30D-SMA), FELL SIGNIFICANTLY WITH PRICES, BUT STILL ABOVE 1 (CURRENTLY 1.43). THIS EMERGING TREND IN PROFITABILITY REFLECTS ONCE AGAIN THE STRUCTURE OF THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2022: LONG-TERM HOLDERS CONTINUE TO BE PROFIT-BASED, BUT PROFIT MARGINS ARE SHRINKING。

Despite stronger demand dynamics than at the beginning of 2022, liquidity continued to decline, so many had to hold the real market average until a new wave of demand entered the market。

 

Analysis of technical indicators

1. RELATIVE STRENGTH AND WEAKNESS INDEX (RSI 14)

BITCOIN14.RSI DATA PICTURE

AT THE END OF THE CYCLE, RSI WAS 47.63, CLOSE TO NEUTRAL POSITION, BUT HAS NOT YET RETURNED TO THE AREA OF APPARENT OVERPURCHASE (RSI > 55-60). COMPARED TO PREVIOUS WEEKS, THE RISE OF THE RSI THIS WEEK REPRESENTS A PARTIAL RELEASE OF SHORT-LINE OVERSELLING PRESSURES, BUT IS NOT YET SUFFICIENT TO REFLECT TREND WARMING。

 

2. MOBILE AVERAGE LINE (MA) ANALYSIS

MA5, MA20, MA50, MA100, M200

The latest average data shows:

• MA5 (5 DAY AVERAGE): $91,230
• MA20 (20 DAY AVERAGE): $93,663
• MA50 (50-DAY MEAN): $106,023
• MA100 (100 DAY AVERAGE): $112,066

The current price is approximately $92,380, located above MA5, but well below MA20/ MA50/ MA100. This structure means that the short-term rebound has begun, but the medium- to medium-term and long-term horizons have not yet shifted and multiple trends have not been established. If Bitcoin fails to break through and stabilize the recovery of MA20, the rebound may be a low recovery in reverse rather than a new trend. The downward trend for MA50 & amp; MA100 has not changed。

 

3. Key support and resistance levels

Support bits: $88,000, and if broken, the next support area is $82,000 – $84,000

RESISTANCE BIT: $93,000 – $94,000 (MA20)

 

Market sentiment analysis

Picture of the fear and greed index

As of December 5, the Fear and Greed Index was about 25 points, in a “extreme fear” zone。

This week (29 November to 5 December), the Fear and Greed Index is 20 (Fear), 20 (Fear), 20 (Fear), 16 (Extra-Fear), 22 (Fear), 27 (Fear), 25 (Fear). As the price of Bitcoin returned to the top of $90,000, there was a gradual recovery of emotions, which was warmer than last week, ablaze in extreme panic and a slight reduction in investor fears. Despite initial repairs to the market, overall confidence remains weak. The current emotional skirmish meant that the response was mainly technical rather than trend-oriented. If the funding landscape continues to improve and no new risk signals emerge at the macro level, the mood is expected to continue out of fear. Otherwise, once prices fall again below key zones, market sentiment may quickly fall。

 

Macroeconomic context

1. For the first time in the history of real-time silver, the amount of $57 per ounce rose by 1.34 per cent in the daytime。

On 31 November, according to news reports, during trading times in Asia, the price of real-time silver in London was at an all-time high, with the first-time breakthrough of $57 per ounce. By the time the report was issued, the price of silver had risen by more than 1.34 per cent a day and had reached 2.3 per cent in part。

THE BURGEONING OF SILVER IS NOT AN ISOLATED EVENT, BUT AN EXPRESSION OF THE LONG-STANDING MISTRUST OF GLOBAL FINANCE OVER THE SYSTEM. TOGETHER WITH JAPAN’S CENTRAL BANK’S WITHDRAWAL FROM ULTRA-LAX POLICIES, IT HAS PROVIDED THE MOST FAVOURABLE MACRO-ENVIRONMENT FOR THE US$-BTC$ – A PERFECT COMBINATION OF INFLATION HEDGES, LIQUIDITY SHIFTS, AND SCARCE ASSET PREMIUMS – PRESAGES AN UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTHENING OF THE FOUNDATION OF THE ENCRYPTED-CURRENCY CATTLE MARKET。

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Federal Reserve Chairman Powell seems to be about to step down

On 1 December, the President of the United States, Trump: I know who I will choose to chair the Fed, and I will announce it soon. And, with heavy news, the United States will receive the real interest rate that the economy needs. In response, Hasset publicly stated that it would be very pleased to have been nominated by Trump as Chairman of the Fed。

ONCE THE FED OFFICIALLY OPENS THE INTEREST-RATE CYCLE, LARGE, LOW-COST DOLLAR LIQUIDITY WILL FLOW INTO THE MARKET, SEEKING ASSETS THAT ARE MORE RESILIENT THAN TRADITIONAL FRENCH CURRENCY, AND THE US$ BCC IS THE FIRST OPTION TO TAKE ON THIS “LIQUID FLOOD.” THUS, THE CRASH WAS NOT THE END, BUT THE LAST MACRO-WASH BEFORE THE CATTLE MARKET ROSE。

 

3. The Governor of the Central Bank of Japan, Taneda and the men, released interest-rate signals that inflation trends were close to targets。

ON 2 DECEMBER, THE GOVERNOR OF THE CENTRAL BANK OF JAPAN, SHIDA AND THE MEN, RELEASED A SIGNAL OF INTEREST RATE HIKE, STATING THAT INFLATION TRENDS WERE CLOSE TO THE TARGET. TO SAY GOODBYE TO CHEAP LEVERAGE FOR HEALTHY CATTLE MARKETS: ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE SHORT TERM FROM THE ARBITRAGE SILO, IT IS ACTUALLY CLEANING UP THE SPECULATIVE BUBBLE IN THE MARKET. THE FOCUS OF THE MARKET IS SHIFTING FROM THE SPECULATIVE PHASE OF RELIANCE ON CHEAP YEN LEVERAGE TO MATURE CATTLE MARKETS DRIVEN BY SPOT ETF AND GLOBAL INSTITUTIONAL CONFIGURATION. THE MOVE OF THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK HAS CREATED A STRONGER MACRO-BASE FOR A HEALTHY AND SUSTAINABLE RISE IN US$ BTC PRICES。

WITH THE NORMALIZATION OF THE FINANCIAL REGULATORY SYSTEM IN JAPAN, THIS WILL PROVIDE A SAFER AND MORE REGULATED CHANNEL FOR THE ALLOCATION OF FUNDS TO LOCAL INSTITUTIONS IN THE AMOUNT OF $BTC. GLOBAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND ASIAN WEALTH WILL INVEST MORE CAPITAL IN COMPLIANCE-COMPLIANT REAL-TIME BTC PRODUCTS TO BOOST LONG-TERM, STRUCTURAL DEMAND FOR BITCOIN IN THE ASIAN REGION, RATHER THAN JUST SHORT-TERM ARBITRAGE SPECULATION。

 

4. Trump wrote that Hasset or will be the Chairman of the Fed

On 4 December, the President of the United States, Trump, indicated that he planned to announce the next Federal Reserve Chair in early 2026. Nick Timiraos, a financial correspondent with the name of the New Federal Reserve News Agency, stated that while the interview of the Fed's Chairman's candidate was still in progress, Trump had “inlined” Hassett, the Director of the White House National Economic Commission, in that position. Hasset has expressed his wish to the White House and other government officials for the post and considers himself the best candidate。

WHEN TRUMP INTRODUCED HASSETT, HE SAID, "BECENT DOESN'T WANT THE FED IN ALL ITS ASPECTS. THE POTENTIAL FED PRESIDENT IS HERE! AFTER THE SPEECH, THE UNITED STATES DOLLAR INDEX FELL BY 0.09 PER CENT, BITCOIN REBOUNDED STRONGLY BY OVER 6 PER CENT, SHORT-TERM LIQUIDITY WAS INADEQUATE AND RISK-SENSITIVE, WHILE COMNEX GOLD FELL BY 0.8 PER CENT. THE RATE OF RETURN ON UNITED STATES TREASURY DEBT DECLINED BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 4.087 PER CENT, THE LATEST DECLINE IN THE 10-YEAR RATE OF RETURN ON TREASURY DEBT。

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3. Mining developments

Hashi rate change

Over the past seven days, there has been a steady overall increase in the rate of the Bitcoin network Hash, which has remained relatively high at 881.32 to 1285.30 ETH/s this week。

In terms of trend, bitcoin-wide computing has been maintained at a high range near 1 ZH/s, and the overall structure has remained strong. Although highly volatile in the short-term, they are all high-level shocks, with no trend decline indicating that the chassis is still stable. The main change this week is still evident in bitcoin prices. When the BTC is in a state-of-the-art mode shift around 2 December, there's a sudden fall in arithmetic sync, with a minimum touch on about 881 ETH/s. It then rebounded as fast as prices were repaired, and reached the height of the phase of 1.15 ZH/s on 3-4 December, reflecting the resilience of the resilience of the resilience within the mining sector。

Zhou bitcoin on Hashi rates

As at 5 December, the capacity of the network was 1.04 ZH/s and the difficulty of mining was 149.30 T. The next adjustment for difficulty is expected to take place on 11 December, with an estimated decrease of 0.73 per cent, or approximately 148.22 T after the adjustment。

 

Bitcoin mining difficulty data

Bitcoin Hasi price index

From the perspective of the daily income per unit of power (Hashprice), Hashrate Index data show that, as at 5 December 2025, Hashprice was $39.24/PH/s/day. This week, Hashprice and Bitcoin price trends are largely consistent, as shown by the trend of falling back sharply:

 

December 4th: Higher this week 39.80 US$/PH/s/day

2 December: Low point this week 35.85 US$/PH/s/day

The central driver of Hashprice is still demand for bitcoin prices and chain transactions. Recent BTC price reversals of activity along the chain have resulted in a number of setbacks in the returns of miners. At the same time, global computing continues to climb, further reducing the profit space for unit computing. However, the rapid pull-up on Wednesday was significantly stronger than within the week, indicating a degree of resilience in high-level fluctuations。

IN COMBINATION WITH THE LATEST INDUSTRY DATA, THE MINING ECONOMY AS A WHOLE IS ENTERING A MORE TENSE PHASE. AT THE SAME TIME, MINING MACHINES HAVE BEEN RAISED BACK TO MORE THAN 1,200 DAYS, AND FINANCING COSTS HAVE CONTINUED TO RISE, FORCING MINING COMPANIES TO ACCELERATE THEIR TRANSITION TO AI AND HIGH PERFORMANCE CALCULATIONS (HPC), BUT THE REVENUES ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT TO COMPENSATE FOR THE DECLINE IN MINING REVENUES. DESPITE MINING-SIDE PRESSURE, THERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE MOOD IN THE CAPITAL MARKET. TAKEN TOGETHER, MINING REVENUES REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE IN THE SHORT TERM, AND MINING ECOLOGY IS GRADUALLY ENTERING A PHASE THAT PLACES GREATER EMPHASIS ON EFFICIENCY, COST CONTROL AND DIVERSIFICATION OF OPERATIONS; BUT IN A CONTEXT OF HIGH-CALCULATIVE INNOVATION AND A RECOVERY IN INSTITUTIONAL ATTENTION, THE INDUSTRY STILL SHOWS SOME RISK RESISTANCE AND STRUCTURAL GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES。

Hashprice Data

 

Policy and regulation of public information

Beijing Business Journal: The People ' s Bank defined stabilization currency for the first time, and industry analysis does not affect Hong Kong ' s stable currency distribution

On 30 November, according to news from the Beijing newspaper, " The rise in speculation, the Bank of the People ' s Bank ' s Repression of Virtual Currency, and the first definition of a stable currency " , the People ' s Bank of China recently convened a meeting on coordination mechanisms for the fight against virtual currency trading. For the first time, the Financial Supervisory Authority defined a stable currency, which is a form of virtual currency and is currently unable to effectively meet customer identification, anti-money-laundering and other requirements. There is a risk that it will be used for illicit activities such as money-laundering, fund-raising and illicit cross-border transfers of funds。

THE FED AND THE FDIC ARE MOVING AHEAD WITH THE GENIUS ACT, AND THE FIRST REGULATIONS FOR THE ISSUER OF STABLE CURRENCY ARE TO BE PUBLISHED IN DECEMBER

On 2 December, ChainCatcher informed that Travis Hill, Acting Chairman of the United States Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (DFIC), stated in his testimony to the House of Representatives Financial Services Commission that FDIC was expected to introduce the first set of regulatory proposals for stable currency issuers to implement the United States Stable Currency National Innovation Guidance and Establishment Act (GENIUS Act). The first set of rules will clearly stabilize the process by which issuers apply for federal regulation, followed by the issuance early next year of prudential requirements for FDIC-regulated pay stabilization issuers, including capital standards, liquidity requirements and reserve asset quality regulation。

FDIC and the Ministry of Finance, respectively, are advancing their respective regulatory responsibilities under GENIUS Act. The rules will be subject to a public consultation phase before the deliberations are completed. Hill added that FDIC was developing further guidance on the state of regulation of “dinetized deposits”, based on the recommendations of the Presidential Working Group on Digital Assets Markets. It is understood that other financial regulators, such as the Fed, will also be heard at this hearing. Michelle Bowman, Vice-President of the Federal Reserve Regulatory Council, also indicated that the Federal Reserve was developing regulatory frameworks to stabilize the capital, liquidity and risk spread of currency issuers, as required by GENIUS Act。

Turkmenistan has passed the Act on the Regulation of Encrypted Assets

According to information received on 3 December, Reuters reported that Turkmenistan had adopted a bill to legalize and regulate digital assets, including a system of licensing the encrypted currency exchange and the company that encrypted mining. The President of Turkmenistan, Serdar Berdymukhamedov, has signed the Act, which will enter into force on 1 January。

According to government spokespersons, the bill would help to attract investment and promote digitization. The Act covers the regulatory framework for the creation, storage, distribution, use and circulation of virtual assets in Turkmenistan and defines their legal and economic status. Turkmenistan is a landlocked country located in the south-western part of Central Asia。

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The Government of Japan is in the process of adjusting a separate tax of 20 per cent on proceeds from encrypted currency transactions

According to news reports on 4 December, the Government of Japan and the ruling party are in the process of adjusting their tax policy on the proceeds of encrypted currency transactions, with a plan to collect income tax at a uniform rate of 20 per cent, regardless of the amount of the transaction, on an equal footing with other financial commodities, such as shares, investment trusts. This is intended to reduce the tax burden on investors and activate the domestic trading market。

The Government of Japan plans to replace the current integrated tax method with tax separation, whereby the proceeds of encrypted currency transactions are no longer counted together with other income such as wages, earnings, etc., but are taxed separately. The Government ' s goal is to incorporate this element of adjustment into the 2026 annual tax reform outline, which is expected to be finalized by the end of the year. Currently, Japan applies a combined tax on proceeds from encrypted currency transactions, i.e., after combining with other income categories, applying a step tax based on the amount of total income, with a maximum rate of 55 per cent。

The Financial Services Agency of Japan plans to submit to the Diet, at its regular session in 2026, amendments to the Financial Commodity Transactions Act, with a view to strengthening the strict supervision of encrypted currency transactions. The amendments would expressly prohibit insider trading using undisclosed information and impose disclosure obligations on the issuer of encrypted currency. As tax reforms advance, it is expected that investment trusts containing encrypted monetary components will also be lifted in Japan。

 

5 Bitcoin-related news

"Global business and national hold of bitcoin (this week's statistics)"

1. DC Enterprise will purchase 300 bitcoins to expand its reserve holdings

On 30 November, DDC Enterprise signed an agreement to purchase 300 bitcoin. Once the transaction is completed, the total holdings will increase to 1383 bitcoin。

2. Capital B plus 5 bitcoins with a total holdings of 2823

On 1 December, foresight News reported that the French listed company Capital B had five more bitcoins, bringing its total holdings to 2823。

3. OranjeBT with 7.3 BTC with a total holdings of 3720.3

On 1 December, the Brazilian company OranjeBT announced an increase of 7.3 BTCs at an average price of approximately $95,000, with total holdings to date reaching 3720.3 and a rate of return of 2.2 per cent in bitcoin to date。

4. Prenetics, a company listed in NASDAQ, has six more, and the total holding of bitcoin has increased to 504

On 2 December, according to BlockWeeks, on 29 November, the NASDAQ-listed company Prenetics, in a communication on platform X, disclosed that it had held six more bitcoin this week, increasing its total hold of bitcoin to 504 so far, with a yield of 435 per cent this year。

5. Hong Kong Telecommunications Company Moon Inc. 7 additional bitcoin, total of 42

On 2 December, ChainCatcher informed Hong Kong Telecommunications Corporation Moon Inc. (Hong Kong Exchange Code: 1723) announced the purchase of seven bitcoins at an average price of US$ 86,233, increasing the company ' s reserves to 42 bitcoin, with an average holding cost of US$ 90,363。

6. GIGA HAS 27.96 MORE BITCOINS AND CURRENTLY HOLDS 1,209.89 BTCS

ON 3 DECEMBER, IGA HELD 27.96 MORE BITCOIN AND CURRENTLY HELD 1,209.89 BTC。

7. The Metaplanet Initiative in Japan financed $136 million to increase the holding of bitcoin

On 3 December, the Japanese Bitcoin Treasury, Metaplanet, planned to finance $136 million to increase the holdings of bitcoin。

8. Hong Kong Telecommunications Company Moon Inc. has 7 more bitcoins and 42 more in storage

On 3 December, according to information received, the Hong Kong Telecommunications Company Moon Inc. (Hong Kong Telecommunication Company Code: 1723) announced the purchase of seven bitcoins at an average cost of US$ 86,233, increasing the company ' s reserves to 42 bitcoins at an average holding cost of US$ 90,363。

9. Sovereign wealth funds are buying bitcoin to establish long-term holdings

On 3 December, according to Forbes, some sovereign wealth funds are buying bitcoin and, with the price of bitcoin falling from the peak of $126,000, “they have stepped up their purchases”。

These funds are being bought “in a gradual manner” and are being increased when prices fall to around $80,000, with the aim of establishing long-term holdings。

10. BHC TREASURY B HODL 2.17 BTC WITH A TOTAL HOLDINGS OF 157 211

On 4 December, ChainCatcher informed that BTC Treasury BHODL had disclosed that it had added 2.17 BTC to its fund pool. This increase brought the total holding of BHODL to 157.211 BTCs。

Mask predicted that energy would be hard currency in the future and that bitcoin would be based on energy

On 1 December, in a recent podcast, Mask said that, in the future, human material needs would be met to a great extent, that currency would no longer be a human necessity and that the concept of currency would even disappear。

And then energy will be the real currency, and, "That's why I say bitcoin is based on energy, and you can't control it through legislation. You can't just pass a law and suddenly have a lot of energy.”

 

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United Arab Emirates Mashreq Capital incorporated bitcoin ETF into its new multi-asset fund

On 1 December, according to Cryptopolitan, the United Arab Emirates Asset Management Corporation, based at the Dubai International Finance Centre (DIFC), Mashreq Capital, announced the launch of the Multi-Asset Investment Common Fund BITMAC, which, through ETF, covers a wide range of asset classes such as equities, fixed earnings, gold and bitcoin, 90 per cent of which are invested in global equities and global fixed earnings, 5 per cent in gold and 5 per cent in bitcoon。

The fund is open to retail investors with a minimum investment of $100. It provides retail investors with an institutional-level path that enables them to deploy both traditional asset classes and digital assets in a single retail fund solution。

Access to sovereign wealth funds: Middle East, Asia

On 2 December, following the deployment of BTC ETF by the United States Pension and University Endowment Fund, credible information was received that the Sovereign Wealth Fund in the Middle East and Asia (SWF) had begun small-scale, but strategic, Bitcoin allocation through complex financial instruments or private trust funds. The entry of sovereign wealth funds signifies that the BTC is seen not only as an “assets”, but also as a strategic reserve or a “shock tool” at the national level. Once such a large agency has incorporated bitcoin into its official balance sheet, its demonstration effect and subsequent allocation of funds will be astronomical。

Bitwise CIO: Strategy will not be forced to sell bitcoin

On 3 December, ChainCatcher reported that, according to Cointelegraph, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan stated that, despite the fall in MStrategy (MSTR), the company would not be forced to sell the $60 billion in bitcoin it held. According to Hougan, MSTR had $1.4 billion in cash reserves that did not need to be repaid before 2027 and that the current price of bitcoin was about $92,000, which was higher than the company ' s average purchase cost of $74,000。

 

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It's near the end of the day. Bitcoin still has a chance to make history

5 December, Bitwise CIO: The diaspora is coming to an end, and Bitcoin still has a chance to make a big difference at the end of the year

In a recent interview with the CNBC, the Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise pointed out that the encryption market is now in the "two worlds":

(b) The collapse of the encrypted home-grown mood and the failure of the leverage warehouse and the revenue agreement

INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS, HOWEVER, CONTINUE TO GROW, DRIVING THE FLOW OF FUNDS TO BITCOIN ETF。

He thought it meant that the market was entering a turning point。

“The winding-up process is nearing its end, the seller's power is approaching depletion, and the purchase is still strong.”

For the end of the year, he predicted that Bitcoin prices were expected to rise to between $125,000 and $130,000, adding that “the $150,000 target proposed by Sailor is not out of reach”。

He also stressed that institutional investors were emerging as a new dominant force in markets and that their rational and long-term perspectives would drive the next round。

"We're closer to the bottom than we thought."

Last time I called for the single king, Murad: 116 reasons came from the Cows Fair in 2026

6 December, Murad: The 36 per cent drop we have seen recently is not something we have never seen before. If you look at all the retreats in this cycle, this is the fastest, most urgent and largest. But we saw 32 per cent retreat in early 2025 and 33 per cent in mid-2024. These retreats are roughly the same as the 36 per cent we now see. This is therefore not unusual in relation to the current cycle. The 3-day line collected a rising hammer line (Bullish Hammer), which is usually a reverse pattern. We need to wait to see if the bottom can be built here for the next two to three weeks, but this particular three-day K-line pattern is on the rise. We are still in a pattern of higher and lower points. In terms of a higher time frame, assuming this 80,005 low point is a local low point, the BTC technology is still creating a higher low point. BTC just tested the demand zone for two weeks, and we're essentially in a supporting position。