Bitget UEX reported that the war will soon be over; 30 years of high rates of return on United States debt in 7 years; Google I/O release of AI new products

I. Hot spots

Federal Reserve Developments

The end of the Tromp War eased some of the pressure, but the signs of inflation remainedThe statement by Tripp that the war with Iran will soon be over and that Iran will not possess nuclear weapons has driven the US stock period to high and oil prices to fall。

• Point 1: Market concerns about geo-risk are phased out and risk assets are supported。
• Point 2: In the forecast market, traders see an increase in the Fed ' s probability of raising interest rates by July 2027。
• Point 3: The 30-year United States debt overtakes 5.19 per cent, up from a high since 2007, reflecting the expected rise in inflation。

Market impacts: Short-term interest risk preferences, but a high rate of return environment may limit the future interest rate space of the Fed, with attention to subsequent geologic progress and data validation。

Major international commodities

Trump ' s position has driven the oil price retreat and geo-desired the expected short-term trendTRUMP'S STATEMENTS ABOUT THE IMMINENT END OF THE WAR TRIGGERED EXPECTATIONS THAT THE MARKET WOULD EASE ITS ENERGY SUPPLYBrent crude oilLower price。

• Point 1: Oil prices have fallen from their previous highs to alleviate some inflation concerns。
• point 2: the strait of hormuz associated shripping still exists, but short-term emotions have improved。
• Point 3:GoldI don't knowSilverSmall fluctuations between higher rates of return and abating geomorphology。

Market impacts: The fall in oil prices has helped to reduce input-inflationary pressures and has positively supported global growth and consumption expectations, subject to continued tracking of real supply recovery。

Macroeconomic policy

The 30-year-old US debt-receiving rate rose to 5.19 per cent and inflation panic went hand in hand with rising borrowing costsThe 30-year rate of return on United States debt exceeded 5.19 per cent, the highest level before the 2007 financial crisis, and large sales orders intensified. Mortgage rates have risen to a high level since last July。

• Point 1: Inflation is expected to warm up due to energy and geo-related factors。
• Element 2: The forecast market shows that the Federal Reserve policy path faces increased uncertainty。
• Point 3: High returns push up the cost of financing the real economy, real estate and stock market pressures。

Market impacts: Strengthened “higher and longer” policy environment, short-term increases in market volatility, possible long-term constraints on growth, and investors need to focus on subsequent inflation data and the Fed's statement。

Market revisiting

large commodities & foreign exchange performance

• Cash gold+0.41%, $4,500/ounce。
• Cash and silver+1.26%, $74/ounce。
• WTI CRUDE OIL- 0.26 per cent and $103 per barrel。
• Brent crude oil- 0.38, $110。
• UNITED STATES DOLLAR INDEX (DXY)+0.04%, report 99.34。

Encryption Currency Performance

• BTC: -0.39 per cent, $76769。
• ETH1.19 per cent for $2110。
• Total market value of encrypted currency-0.8 per cent, $2.63 trillion。
• Market warehouse situation: 24H TOTAL BURSTING TANK $158 MILLION AND ADDITIONAL SINGLE BURSTING WAREHOUSE $106 MILLION。
• Bitget BTC/USDTLiquidation maps: In the immediate vicinity of the current price, the pressure for liquidation between key resistance zones above is relatively concentrated, the support areas below provide a buffer and short-term fluctuations may trigger a chain of liquidation。

• NET INCOMING/OUTWARD SPOT ETFBTC SPOT ETF NET OUTFLOWS OF $5.5 MILLION AND $945 MILLION FOR THREE CONSECUTIVE DAYS。
• BTC INFLOW/EXIT(b) Cash outflows of $54 million and contracts of $277 million were net outflows yesterday。

United States equity index performance

• Finger:-0.65 Report 49,363.88 points, three consecutive days of pressure。
• Pistol 500: -0.67% Report 7,353.61 points, the key feature of which is that the technology and growth unit has been burdened。
• Nut finger: -0.84 per cent Report 25,870.71 points, and the plate drivers include the high-valuing technology unit profited and the upward pressure on the rate of return。

Technology giant dynamics

• AppleI'm sorryAAPL+0.38% REPORT US$ 298.97: REORGANIZATION OF THE HARDWARE SECTOR ACCELERATES AI INTEGRATION AND REVERSES THE FALL。
• NVIDIAI'm sorryNVDA) -0.77% REPORT US$ 220.61: FINANCIAL RETURNS ARE RELEASED TONIGHT, MARKETS ARE CAUTIOUS AND LONG-TERM AI DEMAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNCHANGED。
• Microsoft(MSFT) - 1.44 PER CENT REPORT $417.42: AI AND CLOUD OPERATIONS ARE ROBUST, BUT OVERALL MARKET SENTIMENT IS STRAINED。
• Meta(META) - 1.41% REPORT $602.61: ADVERTISEMENTS GO HAND IN HAND WITH AI INPUT AND ARE AFFECTED BY LARGE DISKS IN THE SHORT TERM。
• AmazonI'm sorryAMZN- 2.08 per cent US$ 259.34: Clouds and electricians perform well, but valuation adjustment pressures are visible。
• Alphabet(GOOG/GOOGL) - 2.09% REPORT $387.66: I/O GENERAL ASSEMBLY ISSUES MANY NEW AI PRODUCTS, WITH LONG-TERM BUT SHORT-TERM RETURNS。
• Tesla(TSLA) - 1.43 per cent reported $404.11: delivery and Robotaxi progress is noted and volatility remains high。

Summary of core causes: THE HIGH-VALUE VALUATION TECHNOLOGY UNIT IS UNDER DOUBLE PRESSURE FROM RISING RATES OF RETURN AND GAINS, WITH LONG-TERM NARRATIVES OF THE AI THEME REMAINING UNCHANGED BUT INCREASING SHORT-TERM FLUCTUATIONS。

Plank Instant Observation

Optical communication panelThe increase is remarkable

• Representing units: Astera Labs +13.3%, Credo Technology +8.14%, Marvell Technology +4.34%。
• Drivers: THE DEMAND FOR HIGH-SPEED CONNECTIVITY BETWEEN THE AI DATA CENTRE CONTINUES TO BE STRONG, WITH SOME UNITS EXPERIENCING OVER-TURN AND FUNDING。

III. In-depth interpretation of United States shares

1. NVIDIA - A HEAVY HIT TONIGHT

Summary of events: NVIDIA WILL RELEASE THE Q1 FINANCIAL STATEMENT AFTER US EASTERN TIME ON 20 MAY, AND THE IMPLIED VOLATILITY IN THE OPTIONS MARKET INDICATES A POSSIBLE SINGLE-DAY SHOCK OF ABOUT 7.56 PER CENT IN STOCK PRICES. WALL STREET GENERALLY EXPECTED THAT THE COMPANY WOULD DELIVER MORE THAN EXPECTED AND INCREASE THE YEAR-ROUND GUIDANCE, AND THE AID DATA CENTRE REQUIREMENTS REMAINED CORE-DRIVEN。Market interpretation: THE INSTITUTIONAL VIEW IS THAT WHILE SHORT-TERM GEO- AND MACRO-VARICATION MAY CAUSE DISTURBANCES, THE AI CAPITAL EXPENDITURE CYCLE IS STILL AT AN EARLY STAGE, AND NVIDIA, AS A CORE BENEFICIARY, HAS A STRONG LONG-TERM GROWTH LOGIC. SOME ANALYSTS EMPHASIZED THE NEED TO FOCUS ON MĀORI RATES AND THE RHYTHM OF NEXT GENERATION PRODUCTS。Investment revelation: POST-FINANCIAL FLUCTUATIONS ARE OF CONCERN, AND IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT LEVERAGE BE CONTROLLED IN THE SHORT TERM IN THE CONTEXT OF LONG-TERM AI TRENDS AND POSITION MANAGEMENT。

2. Alphabet (Google) - I/O General Assembly Intensive release of AI new products

Summary of events: Google I/O General Assembly launch Gemini 3.5 Flash (Model of the fastest and most cost-effective), GeminiSparkAI smart bodies (integrated multiplatforms such as Gmail, Docs) and search experience upgrades, open to the world free of charge and enhanced multimodule and proxy capabilities。Market interpretationThis is seen as a further consolidation of Google ' s leading position in generating AI and searching, which in the long run will enhance advertising and cloud business liquidity, but short-term markets are more concerned with actual commercialization of the landing rhythm and competition patterns。Investment revelation: A PRODUCT MATRIX CONTINUES TO OVERLAP AS CORE COMPETITIVENESS, AND IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT ATTENTION BE GIVEN TO SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPERS' USE OF DATA ON INCOME CONTRIBUTIONS。

3. Apple - Reorganization of the hardware sector accelerating AI fall Land

Summary of events: Apple Chief Hardware Officer Johny Srouji initiated a major restructuring of the hardware development sector, bringing the self-study chip team closer together with the product team and aiming to speed up the downing of AI at the end of the hardware。Market interpretation: The institutional perspective points out that this is an important organizational adjustment for Apple to catch up with AI competition, and that together with the previous chip and software layout, it is expected to introduce a more competitive AI terminal experience in 2026 and beyond。Investment revelation: AI HARDWARE LANDING IS A MEDIUM- TO LONG-TERM CATALYST AND RECOMMENDS TRACKING PRODUCT RELEASE NODES AND ECOLOGICAL FEEDBACK。

4. Optical telecommunications-related units (e.g., Astera Labs) - AI Demand Drive

Summary of events• A significant rebound in several optical and high-speed interconnected units and a single-day increase of over 13 per cent in Astera Labs, reflecting continued market interest in the infrastructure needs of the AID data centre。Market interpretationTHE AGENCY BELIEVES THAT THE DEMAND FOR HIGH-SPEED, LOW-DELAYED CONNECTIONS FOR AI TRAINING AND REASONING IS STILL GROWING RAPIDLY, PARTLY OVERSTRETCHING THE FINANCIAL CONCERNS, BUT BEWARE OF THE PACE OF VALUATION AND PROFITABILITY。Investment revelation: The plate is clearly divided and it is recommended to select a stock with a solid base and high order visibility to control short-term fluctuations。

IV. Developments in encryption money projects

One, Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, said that he was not the only one to be able to do thisHyperliquidThe HYPE token remained undervalued, although it had risen by 77 per cent during the year, being the best-performing encryption asset in 2026. According to Matt Hougan, HYPE is a “second generation” encrypted token with the potential to add value over time to similar securities, whose value is still underestimated。

In a report, K33 Research stated that the round of Bitcoin Bears was different, and that the extremely pessimistic traders restricted the downside. Bitcoin traders continued to be defensive, reducing the risk of leverage-driven crashes. The research director, Vetle Lunde, noted that the current slow grinding of the ground did not reproduce the rapid reversal of the bear market in the previous cycle, but rather the derivative data pointed to extreme pessimism. The 30-day average funding rate for bitcoin has been negative for 81 consecutive days, close to the longest record, and the CMEbitco futures base has fallen below 2.5 per cent, a very prudent level. Bitcoin derivatives, however, are still over-contracted, and further price weakness could trigger fluctuations. K33 maintained its basic judgement that the fall of Bitcoin to $60,000 in February was probably the largest retreat in the current round。

AS TRADITIONAL ASSET MANAGEMENT COMPANIES SPEED UP THE FORWARDING OF MONETIZATION ASSETS, THE TOTAL MARKET VALUE OF REAL-WORLD ASSETS (RWAS) HAS EXCEEDED $65 BILLION, AN INCREASE OF ABOUT 44 PER CENT OVER THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR. THE TAIPEI ACCOUNTS FOR ABOUT 33 PER CENT OF THE MARKET AND MAINTAINS ITS STATUS AS THE DEFAULT PLATFORM FOR INSTITUTIONAL TOKENIZATION。

4 According to The Block data, daily transactions of monetized stocks reached a record high of $3.57 billion on Monday. Platforms such as Ondo and Bitget contributed to multi-billion dollar stock trading in the cumulative chain. Notably, Bloomberg reported on Monday that the United States SEC was developing guidelines and innovative exemptions for emerging chain stock ecosystems。

5. According to CoinDesk, one of Germany ' s largest institutional asset management companiesUnionAccording to Christopher Hock, the head of digital assets and monetization of Investment, Tether and Circle’s stable currency reserve structure is more like speculative funds than a true mooring instrument of French currency, and even holding large amounts of United States Treasury debt does not protect them from sudden liquidity crises. Hock notes that Tether holds large amounts of gold and bitcoin, USDT andUSDCIt is therefore more like hedge funds, whose currency economy is vulnerable and may affect the financial interests of the holders。

6. The total supply of stable currencies has exceeded $300 billion, but growth has stalled. Tether's USDT's over $5 billion over the past month, but USDC, USDe andPYUSDThe total volume of supply decreased by some $4.2 billion over the same period, with a net increase of only about $900 million, equivalent to a 0.3 per cent increase in total supply。

V. Today ' s market calendar

Data release schedules

The big news

Institutional perspective:

COMBINING THE PAST 24 HOURS, TRUMP’S STATEMENT THAT THE WAR WILL SOON BE OVER INJECTED A PERIOD OF OPTIMISM INTO THE MARKET, BOOSTING THE US STOCK PERIOD’S UPTURN AND THE FALL IN OIL PRICES, HAS EFFECTIVELY ALLEVIATED SOME OF THE INFLATION CONCERNS. HOWEVER, 30 YEARS OF A NEW 5.19 PER CENT HIGH RATE OF RETURN ON UNITED STATES DEBT CLEARLY REFLECTS THE MARKET'S CONCERN ABOUT THE CLIMATE OF PERSISTENT INFLATION AND “HIGHER AND LONGER” POLICIES. IT IS WIDELY RECOGNIZED BY LEADING INVESTMENT BANK ANALYSTS THAT GEO-SCALING, IF SUSTAINED, WILL SUPPORT RISK ASSETS, PARTICULARLY AI AND THE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY GROWTH BLOCK; HOWEVER, A HIGH RATE OF RETURN ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPRESS VALUATION AND REQUIRE SHORT-TERM VIGILANCE THAT DATA VALIDATION DOES NOT YIELD THE DESIRED FEEDBACK. THE NVIDIA FINANCIAL PAPER IS SEEN AS AN IMPORTANT WINDBENDER, AND THE ORGANIZATION GENERALLY EXPECTS THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER-ANTICIPATED AND DIRECTED UPWARDS TO BENEFIT THE AI INDUSTRY CHAIN. THE ENCRYPTED MARKET FOLLOWS MACRO-RISK PREFERENCES, BTC AND ETH SHOCK IN THE VICINITY OF CRITICAL SUPPORT, AND ETF FLOW AND LEVERAGE CLEARANCE DATA ARE WORTH TRACKING CONTINUOUSLY. OVERALL, THE MARKET IS IN THE PHASE OF GEO-OPTIMISTIC AND MACRO-PRUDENTIAL GAMING, AND IT IS RECOMMENDED TO MAINTAIN A FLEXIBLE POSITION, WITH A FOCUS ON THE FISCAL SEASON AND SUBSEQUENT INFLATION DATA。

DISCLAIMER: THE ABOVE IS COLLATED BY AI, MANUALLY ISSUED ONLY FOR VALIDATION AND IS NOT RECOMMENDED FOR INVESTMENT. FOR UNAVOIDABLE DEVIATIONS IN THE TEXT, PLEASE REFER TO MARKET INSTANTANEOUS DATA。