Quantified Quantified Ranch of Luck

Today, in the Quantified Trading Market, most people consider these cold algorithmic robots to be the ruthless harvesters on Wall Street, constantly extracting sweat money from the dispersed households at millisecond-grade speeds, caused by emotional miscalculation or asymmetric information。

however, in one emerging market in the last 48 hours, several top-quantification robots have collectively collapsed on an almost perfect yield curve, with a mysterious account called a4385, out of which $280,000 was spent。

this market is called the forecast market, and this is where a trader named a4385 shows the world a well-planned, quantitative robot-specific hunt。

Financial version "Speculation": arbitrage for quantitative models

Anyone who guesses size knows that there is a similar game in the forecast market。

For example, if you bet "up" on "the price of gold will rise or fall" tomorrow, and the price will actually rise tomorrow, whatever the increase, your "up" position will be settled profitably on the basis of the rate at which the bet is made, which in itself corresponds to the probability of the event. On the other hand, if the price drops, no matter how much it falls, your position will be zero。

"XRP RISES OR FALLS IN 15 MINUTES" IS A TYPICAL REPRESENTATION OF MANY OF THE MARKETS THAT ARE PROJECTED. EACH 15 MINUTE ENTRY OPENS WITH AN INITIAL PRICE; 15 MINUTES LATER, IF THE PRICE OF THE XRP IS HIGHER THAN THE INITIAL PRICE, THE TRADERS BETTING "UP" THE PROFIT, AND THE OTHER PARTY BET "DOWN" THE PROFIT。

As illustrated, Price To Beat corresponds to the initial price, Current Price corresponds to the real-time price. The red 12-29 on the top right corresponds to the time remaining for settlement. If the price line is above the "target" in the chart at the time of the settlement, the bet is "up" and "down" is paid。

This real-time mechanism has made it a paradise for quantifying robots: algorithms capture price deviations caused by a variety of causes, including emotions, information delays, time remaining, through sophisticated statistical models, and smooth profits from automated transactions。

0x8dxd is a perfect example of many quantitative robots: the yield of $7.4 million over the past 44 days since 5 december 2025, with an average of 219 different markets per day, has been very smooth。

THE XRP JUST WENT UP AT THE SETTLEMENT AND DOUBLED THE FUNDS OF THE "LUCKY HOUSE."

On the afternoon of January 17, 2026, a4385 was betted "up" in "XRP 15 minutes later."。

THE XRP STARTING PRICE FOR THIS ENTRY IS $2.0784, AND UNTIL 17:58:54 (66 SECONDS REMAINING FROM SETTLEMENT), THE PRICE OF XRP HOVERS AT $2.0737, AND THE CORRESPONDING PROBABILITY OF AN INCREASE IS ONLY 36% - THE MARKET CONSENSUS IS THAT IT IS VERY DIFFICULT FOR XRP TO RISE ABOVE THE INITIAL PRICE IN JUST ONE MINUTE。

AND IN THE NEXT MINUTE, THE XRP SUDDENLY BEGAN TO RISE AND AT THE TIME OF THE MARKET SETTLEMENT THE OFFER WAS SET AT $2.0817 — JUST PAST THE INITIAL PRICE。

this means that a4385 large profits have been made from entry to settlement positions, and those quantified robots, such as those in the following figure, have lost all historical profits and even incurred additional losses simply because of this single market。

The quantitative robot has earned more than $40,000 over the past seven months, while the loss on this entry is $34,000。

A lot of good luck behind this

After the closure, a4385 was found, followed by a number of similar "blackhouses of luck" operations: one minute before the closing of multiple markets, XRP prices suddenly skyrocketed, and the next second after the settlement fell rapidly。

This raises doubts that his "luck" may not be a coincidence, but a precision sniper attack on a quantitative robot。

In theory, a4385 can bet on "up", if the real-time value of the XRP is below the initial price, and then, one minute before the settlement, buy the XRP through a large bill of market value, artificially push the price up to ensure that the price at the time of settlement is above the initial price, thereby locking it in。

AT THIS POINT, ALL THE DETAILS THAT HAD PREVIOUSLY APPEARED TO BE IRRELEVANT BECAME IMPORTANT: 17 ON WEEKENDS, THE ORDER BOOK DEPTH PROVIDED FOR XRP BY THE MARKETER WAS NOT SUFFICIENT TO BUFFER SHORT-TERM LARGE TRANSACTIONS。

AND THE CHOICE OF XRP, WHICH IS DIFFERENT FROM THE COLD SIGNPOST OF BITCOIN, IS A FURTHER GUARANTEE OF A LIGHTER ORDER BOOK DEPTH, SO THAT THE OPERATOR CAN USE LESS COST TO PRESS THE PRICE IN A SHORT TIME。

this gives a4385 a perfect short drive window:

First, in the forecast market, a number of large bets were "up" within 10 minutes of the closure. As real-time prices were lower than the initial prices during that period, the rate of compensation was higher。

ON THE CORRESPONDING XRP PRICE CHART, THE PRICE HOVERED AROUND 2.074 UNTIL 17:59. IN THE LAST MINUTE, HOWEVER, THERE WAS AN INFLUX OF SEVERAL UNUSUAL LARGE TRANSACTIONS, WHICH CAUSED PRICES TO BREAK THE INITIAL PRICE (RED HORIZONTAL LINE) IN AN INSTANT。

WHEN THE ENTRY IS SUCCESSFULLY CLOSED, THE XRP THAT HAS JUST BEEN BOUGHT IS THROWN OUT, LEADING TO AN INSTANT REVERSAL OF THE PRICE。

If we assume that all the purchase orders at 17:59 come from a4385, the total cost of buying and selling is approximately $6,200, based on the K-minute turnover of $569 million, with an exchange fee of 0.32 per cent。

And he's betting "up" on this disk for $40,218. By replicating the strategy, he had made nearly $300,000 in 48 hours。

we also need to pay the costs of this hot blood story, which appears to be "scrambling."。

In addition to the thousands of United States dollars of wear and tear, the purchase of a tractor would incur a substantial loss due to the fall in the value of the currency when sold after settlement。

SO WHILE HE'S PULLING, HE NEEDS TO HAVE AN EQUAL ONE-FOLD LIST. IT IS ONLY IN THIS WAY THAT THE TOTAL VALUE OF HIS ASSETS WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED, REGARDLESS OF THE SHARP FLUCTUATIONS IN THE REAL VALUE OF THE XRP IN HAND。

In other words, he needed over $1 million in liquidity to ensure the viability of the strategy, in addition to bearing the costs of the process。

So, it's not a gambler's game of luck, it's not an ordinary family party。

Behind the legend of a casino's windfall, perhaps it was never luck in itself, but the inevitable result of precisely calculated funds, structures and rules。